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Ulthanon on
Their mouth to God’s ears. This is why a ground game matters.
solidgoldrocketpants on
I just moved to NJ a month ago and I gotta say I love NJ.com’s political reporting.
twenafeesh on
We won’t know for sure until election day (or maybe a few days afterward). Take nothing for granted.
OppositeDifference on
>Is polling failing to address an enthusiasm gap within Kamala Harris’ or Donald Trump’s campaign?
I think so. They’re failing to capture it in the exact same way that they failed to capture the Biden/Trump enthusiasm gap in 2020.
In the lead up to the 2020 election, Biden voters were 7% less likely to say they were very or extremely excited to vote than Trump voters. In the 2020 Election, Biden under-performed polling slightly to moderately across the board.
This year, it’s reversed. Harris voters are 7% more likely to say they’re excited than Trump voters.
The logical inference from that information is that we could reasonably expect Harris to over-perform polling across the board slightly to moderately.
This also makes it more likely than it otherwise would have been that the “adjustments” pollsters made in response to 2020 results will end up being in the wrong direction. They set all of their methodology based on a Biden/Trump rematch, and it doesn’t look like most of them have made any significant adjustments since Harris joined the race.
And then you have to consider the rest of the content of this article. I really do think that there’s a hidden woman vote from the partners of Republican voting men. They might say they’re voting for Trump to keep the peace, but there’s nothing stopping them from voting for Harris when they can. I personally suspect this effect might be why we’ve been seeing republicans in general under-performing their polling in every special election in the past few years.
VIRGO_SUPERCLUSTERZ on
If I were an American Harris voter, I’d be telling every pollster I’m voting for Trump to combat complacency.
MWF123 on
This is what Ive been suspecting. In 2020, Trump was underestimated in part because he had an in-person GOTV operation and Joe Biden didnt. Now the reverse is true, and Trumps GOTV is reported to be pretty anemic in comparison to Harris’.
WaitUntilTheHighway on
Is this the fed-up-wives-of-shitbag-MAGA-dudes phenomenon?
Big-D-TX on
Not really a secret about 1/2 of my republican friends are voting Harris
Zeddo52SD on
Been feeling this for a minute now. Trump had a lot of supporters that never got polled, but I’ve been feeling confident that he lost them over Jan 6 and everything Trump’s done since then. At worst, they break even between Trump and Harris and the polls are correct. At at most it’s anywhere from a 60-40 to 70-30 break for Harris on unpolled voters. Kamala has the silent majority now, not Trump.
Ok_Mortgage6020 on
Secret Harris voters? That’s a new one. If people are really out there quietly supporting her, we’re in for some surprises. 2024 might be even wilder than we thought
old_and_boring_guy on
Possible, but we won’t know until the day after.
Vote like there are only secret Trump voters.
Then_Journalist_317 on
Part of the problem is news reports typically just give the center point of the error band. Reports saying (for example) Harris 47% vs. Trump 46% should really be reported as Harris 44-50% and Trump 43%-49% (assuming +/- 3% margin of error).
espresso_martini__ on
I wouldn’t be surprised if these secret voters are women in unfortunate relationships with republican men who demand they vote for Trump.
zimzyma on
I saw a recent poll that had 18-29 year olds as 30% of “likely voter” responses, 65yr+ were about 15% of the responses. The model adjustment actually flipped the weighting of the 2 groups based on past trends to come to the 51/49 Kamala top line advantage.
At ~60/40 split for Kamala for the young and ~40/60 for the old… this model adjustment knocks 3% off Kamala’s top line. The headline number should be closer to 54/46 Kamala.
Is this a bad attempt at smoothing the data, or adjusting to a change in voting habits? Maybe. A tighter race means more fundraising, more paid ads on media sites, and more money spent on polling.
The money in the politics “industry” is killing our democracy, and if you think Trump is the guy to fight this… sorry, you’re sucker and a loser.
dominustui56 on
Vote, take nothing for granted, etc.
My main source of optimism is that the media wants to make the race look close. It attracts views/clicks. I think back to 2012 when less political junkies I talked to thought it was going to be a close race between Romney and Obama but Obama won easily.
Diogocouceiro on
Vote
The only poll that matters
smokingpen on
I’ve long thought, based 2020, that any “tie” in polling between Trump and anyone else is a win for the other person. Not necessarily because of *secret Harris voters*, but rather people who vote republican will simply not vote for Trump (this was part of his issue with Georgia in 2020) and will vote down ballot.
They don’t have to vote for anyone for president and still vote for representatives and others in other races.
I want to believe voters in general are smarter than what we’re being presented with in the polls and given the significant numbers of people who effectively voted Other during the primaries, I find it hard to believe Trump/Vance has some secret support system.
BioDriver on
This gives big 2016 vibes.
Every poll showed Clinton would win a tightly contested race. But on the ground in swing states there were exponentially more Trump-Pence signs than there were Clinton-Kaine. Now the reverse is true; areas that were usually plastered in TRUMP and MAGA paraphernalia are dwindled down considerably if not outright replaced by Harris-Walz signs. I’ve seen this throughout Texas and in parts of Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, and Colorado that I visit frequently for work. Indiana was shocking – all those pro-life billboards but Harris yard signs and flyers all over the place in areas that a year prior were TRUMP 2024 banners.
Harris doing a media blitz four weeks out of the election was the right call. People are getting tired of Trump and the stark difference she brings is refreshing.
notevenkiddin on
For what little it’s worth, I just drove a 200 mile loop through the reddest part of Louisiana (central) and made it a point to count Trump flags. I only saw five.
Tommy__want__wingy on
They are also missing people who lie on polls.
You have people who say they are voting Trump when voting Harris, or vice versa.
Which is why polls will always have flaws.
Spectre777777 on
I can agree with this. I come from a family of Trump supporters and I will never admit I’m voting for Harris.
LennyAteYourPizza on
The “silent” majority that supposedly stood with Trump in 2016 was really just people sitting that election out because they didn’t like Hillary enough and didn’t think Trump stood a chance of winning anyways.
But now the silent majority is everyone sick and tired of the lying crybaby man, but too afraid of their MAGA neighbors and spouses to vocally/visibly support Kamala. 🙏 VOTE!!
Wynaeri on
I’ll say I’m seeing Kamala signs in my VERY red, VERY small town in Michigan. I’ve lived there for 20 years or so, and never saw Kerry, Obama, Clinton, or Biden signs.
My wife and I will be voting for Kamala, but we don’t put signs out or anything just because we honestly don’t trust our neighbors not to target us maliciously. And isn’t that sad?
atxDan75 on
Been saying this for a long time. There WILL be voters who play the trump game to save face with family and neighbors etc., but have a moral compass set to the right direction and will pull that D lever on 11/5. Mark it.
Most-Artichoke6184 on
Democratic candidates have outperformed the polling in almost every election since 2016. Just yesterday, a democrat won a mayoral race in Alaska in a city that Trump won by 15 points in 2020.
Caerris1 on
Another thing I think people aren’t calculating. Just because someone is a registered Republican doesn’t mean they’re voting for Trump. Liz Cheney would come up in a poll as a Republican.
I know people in my personal life who are Republicans and they’re voting for Kamala because Trump needs to go.
Kamala Harris is working really hard to win Republicans over. There are also the independents who are sick of Trump. I think all of the conspiracies around the hurricane is going to be just another reminder of the kind of chaos agent Trump is while Biden and Kamala look professional and are immediately acting.
niltermini on
Lets not count on one anecdote about a lady in New York
, it’s going to take millions and millions to win decisively – we absolutely have to vote no matter what it takes to do so.
HumphreyLee on
I have no articles to back this up but just have a sense that there a lot of women voters out there of all ages who are just smiling and going along with their fathers and husbands that are loudly pro-Trump that are really upset about what has happened to their rights or afraid of what will continue to them that are going to cast quiet votes for Kamala and just weather the storm by the males in the household if/when Cheeto fascist goes down finally.
ddouce on
In 2016, it was difficult to forecast because so many seldom to never voters turned out to vote for Trump.
In 2024, that wildcard demographic is women under 30. If they turn out in greater than normal numbers, it might be an early night. If their turnout is close to historical averages, we’re in for days of anxiety.
Feeling_Okra_9644 on
We should have learned from 2016 that there are a lot of voters for Trump that don’t admit it in poling. Between voter suppression and closet racists , Trump is going to do much better election day than we think
Brains_Are_Weird on
I had an argument with my mom about this last night. Why would people choose to remain secret Harris voters for polls?
Oceanbreeze871 on
I’ve been saying for a while that nobody under 55 is answering an unexpected unknown phone call for a poster
Brains_Are_Weird on
Everybody please consider volunteering with the Harris campaign. I did my first phone banking session yesterday and it’s quite easy and only takes two hours and can be done from home. I figure it’s better to release my nervous energy somehow. Just Google “phone bank for Harris,” sign up for a time slot, and you’ll be linked to a Zoom call that begins at that time, in which you’ll be oriented and trained.
MrMongoose on
No, they aren’t. There are no secret Harris voters, or shy Trump voters, or any other stealth group (at least not in statistically significant numbers). What polls MIGHT be missing are enthusiastic Harris voters or exhausted Republicans.
If Harris overperforms (and I suspect she will) it’s because Harris supporters showed up and/or Trump supporters did not. Turnout is the unknown variable. Polls are very bad at predicting who will vote. When polls are significantly off it’s almost always because they got voter turnout wrong.
Vote. Vote early. Encourage everyone you know to vote early – especially people who might be inclined to put it off or stay home. We MUST drive up participation.
basketballsteven on
Seems plausible but instead of focusing your attention on the polls and what the polls say might happen it’s better to focus on the numerous places that now report on early voting and mail in voting turnout and the proportion of that voting that is democratic is very encouraging.
It will be a turnout election for sure.
rajine105 on
Polls are also missing people that don’t answer random polls. I’ve never run into one, and wouldn’t take time out of my day to answer these kind of questions anyway if I did. Polls are meaningless
Raa03842 on
Interesting. I have a relative who’s husband is a batshit crazy maga moron. He’s telling his wife the she MUST take a photo of her ballot after she checks off Trump in the booth so he can be sure that she voted in accordance with his wishes!!!
Technically it’s illegal voter intimidation.
So I simply told her to take a photo where the check mark for the candidate is cropped out and explain to him that “I had trouble holding the ballot, camera and purse at the same time.” And then be pissed at him and put him on the defensive.
I’m beginning to suspect that there are a lot of women in this situation.
So to all of you that have to survive in a maga household go with the flow and stay safe. But when you’re in that voting booth vote your conscience.
Stay safe. We’re in your side.
Dariawasright on
I will say this over and over again. If your partner won’t let you vote for who you want to vote for, or you’re a woman whose husband is voting for a perp who wants to take away women’s rights, you need a divorce.
CryptographerAny9232 on
Literally this. I live in rural Pennsylvania and you would be surprised at how many secret Harris voters there are. We will flip this state blue.
HereWeGoAgain-247 on
I will believe the polls in mid November. Vote democrat across the board or shit is going to get real bad.
Republicans been saying out loud theirs plans and we have to assume they aren’t lying. A lot of time and money and maneuvering has gone into setting the mechanisms in place to hand republicans this election if it is even remotely close. Remember the Supreme Court handed Bush the election in 2000. This stuff happens and can happen again.
Curlyfryman on
I don’t put much stock in polls, I’ve been voting in elections both national and local for years and I’ve never been asked to give my opinion in a poll. I just assume there are massive amounts of people who aren’t being asked to take part.
itzurboijeff on
I think the polls are *severely* underestimating Harris. People keep saying this race is close but I think it’s a lot more lop-sided than polls suggest
Honky_Stonk_Man on
Maga is all mouth all the time. It is too exhausting to argue with those folks, and while they can be decked out head to toe in maga gear, you wear one Harris shirt and they go apeshit. So yeah, a lot of us keeping our mouths shut and will vote Harris in.
44 Comments
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Their mouth to God’s ears. This is why a ground game matters.
I just moved to NJ a month ago and I gotta say I love NJ.com’s political reporting.
We won’t know for sure until election day (or maybe a few days afterward). Take nothing for granted.
>Is polling failing to address an enthusiasm gap within Kamala Harris’ or Donald Trump’s campaign?
I think so. They’re failing to capture it in the exact same way that they failed to capture the Biden/Trump enthusiasm gap in 2020.
In the lead up to the 2020 election, Biden voters were 7% less likely to say they were very or extremely excited to vote than Trump voters. In the 2020 Election, Biden under-performed polling slightly to moderately across the board.
This year, it’s reversed. Harris voters are 7% more likely to say they’re excited than Trump voters.
The logical inference from that information is that we could reasonably expect Harris to over-perform polling across the board slightly to moderately.
This also makes it more likely than it otherwise would have been that the “adjustments” pollsters made in response to 2020 results will end up being in the wrong direction. They set all of their methodology based on a Biden/Trump rematch, and it doesn’t look like most of them have made any significant adjustments since Harris joined the race.
And then you have to consider the rest of the content of this article. I really do think that there’s a hidden woman vote from the partners of Republican voting men. They might say they’re voting for Trump to keep the peace, but there’s nothing stopping them from voting for Harris when they can. I personally suspect this effect might be why we’ve been seeing republicans in general under-performing their polling in every special election in the past few years.
If I were an American Harris voter, I’d be telling every pollster I’m voting for Trump to combat complacency.
This is what Ive been suspecting. In 2020, Trump was underestimated in part because he had an in-person GOTV operation and Joe Biden didnt. Now the reverse is true, and Trumps GOTV is reported to be pretty anemic in comparison to Harris’.
Is this the fed-up-wives-of-shitbag-MAGA-dudes phenomenon?
Not really a secret about 1/2 of my republican friends are voting Harris
Been feeling this for a minute now. Trump had a lot of supporters that never got polled, but I’ve been feeling confident that he lost them over Jan 6 and everything Trump’s done since then. At worst, they break even between Trump and Harris and the polls are correct. At at most it’s anywhere from a 60-40 to 70-30 break for Harris on unpolled voters. Kamala has the silent majority now, not Trump.
Secret Harris voters? That’s a new one. If people are really out there quietly supporting her, we’re in for some surprises. 2024 might be even wilder than we thought
Possible, but we won’t know until the day after.
Vote like there are only secret Trump voters.
Part of the problem is news reports typically just give the center point of the error band. Reports saying (for example) Harris 47% vs. Trump 46% should really be reported as Harris 44-50% and Trump 43%-49% (assuming +/- 3% margin of error).
I wouldn’t be surprised if these secret voters are women in unfortunate relationships with republican men who demand they vote for Trump.
I saw a recent poll that had 18-29 year olds as 30% of “likely voter” responses, 65yr+ were about 15% of the responses. The model adjustment actually flipped the weighting of the 2 groups based on past trends to come to the 51/49 Kamala top line advantage.
At ~60/40 split for Kamala for the young and ~40/60 for the old… this model adjustment knocks 3% off Kamala’s top line. The headline number should be closer to 54/46 Kamala.
Is this a bad attempt at smoothing the data, or adjusting to a change in voting habits? Maybe. A tighter race means more fundraising, more paid ads on media sites, and more money spent on polling.
The money in the politics “industry” is killing our democracy, and if you think Trump is the guy to fight this… sorry, you’re sucker and a loser.
Vote, take nothing for granted, etc.
My main source of optimism is that the media wants to make the race look close. It attracts views/clicks. I think back to 2012 when less political junkies I talked to thought it was going to be a close race between Romney and Obama but Obama won easily.
Vote
The only poll that matters
I’ve long thought, based 2020, that any “tie” in polling between Trump and anyone else is a win for the other person. Not necessarily because of *secret Harris voters*, but rather people who vote republican will simply not vote for Trump (this was part of his issue with Georgia in 2020) and will vote down ballot.
They don’t have to vote for anyone for president and still vote for representatives and others in other races.
I want to believe voters in general are smarter than what we’re being presented with in the polls and given the significant numbers of people who effectively voted Other during the primaries, I find it hard to believe Trump/Vance has some secret support system.
This gives big 2016 vibes.
Every poll showed Clinton would win a tightly contested race. But on the ground in swing states there were exponentially more Trump-Pence signs than there were Clinton-Kaine. Now the reverse is true; areas that were usually plastered in TRUMP and MAGA paraphernalia are dwindled down considerably if not outright replaced by Harris-Walz signs. I’ve seen this throughout Texas and in parts of Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, and Colorado that I visit frequently for work. Indiana was shocking – all those pro-life billboards but Harris yard signs and flyers all over the place in areas that a year prior were TRUMP 2024 banners.
Harris doing a media blitz four weeks out of the election was the right call. People are getting tired of Trump and the stark difference she brings is refreshing.
For what little it’s worth, I just drove a 200 mile loop through the reddest part of Louisiana (central) and made it a point to count Trump flags. I only saw five.
They are also missing people who lie on polls.
You have people who say they are voting Trump when voting Harris, or vice versa.
Which is why polls will always have flaws.
I can agree with this. I come from a family of Trump supporters and I will never admit I’m voting for Harris.
The “silent” majority that supposedly stood with Trump in 2016 was really just people sitting that election out because they didn’t like Hillary enough and didn’t think Trump stood a chance of winning anyways.
But now the silent majority is everyone sick and tired of the lying crybaby man, but too afraid of their MAGA neighbors and spouses to vocally/visibly support Kamala. 🙏 VOTE!!
I’ll say I’m seeing Kamala signs in my VERY red, VERY small town in Michigan. I’ve lived there for 20 years or so, and never saw Kerry, Obama, Clinton, or Biden signs.
My wife and I will be voting for Kamala, but we don’t put signs out or anything just because we honestly don’t trust our neighbors not to target us maliciously. And isn’t that sad?
Been saying this for a long time. There WILL be voters who play the trump game to save face with family and neighbors etc., but have a moral compass set to the right direction and will pull that D lever on 11/5. Mark it.
Democratic candidates have outperformed the polling in almost every election since 2016. Just yesterday, a democrat won a mayoral race in Alaska in a city that Trump won by 15 points in 2020.
Another thing I think people aren’t calculating. Just because someone is a registered Republican doesn’t mean they’re voting for Trump. Liz Cheney would come up in a poll as a Republican.
I know people in my personal life who are Republicans and they’re voting for Kamala because Trump needs to go.
Kamala Harris is working really hard to win Republicans over. There are also the independents who are sick of Trump. I think all of the conspiracies around the hurricane is going to be just another reminder of the kind of chaos agent Trump is while Biden and Kamala look professional and are immediately acting.
Lets not count on one anecdote about a lady in New York
, it’s going to take millions and millions to win decisively – we absolutely have to vote no matter what it takes to do so.
I have no articles to back this up but just have a sense that there a lot of women voters out there of all ages who are just smiling and going along with their fathers and husbands that are loudly pro-Trump that are really upset about what has happened to their rights or afraid of what will continue to them that are going to cast quiet votes for Kamala and just weather the storm by the males in the household if/when Cheeto fascist goes down finally.
In 2016, it was difficult to forecast because so many seldom to never voters turned out to vote for Trump.
In 2024, that wildcard demographic is women under 30. If they turn out in greater than normal numbers, it might be an early night. If their turnout is close to historical averages, we’re in for days of anxiety.
We should have learned from 2016 that there are a lot of voters for Trump that don’t admit it in poling. Between voter suppression and closet racists , Trump is going to do much better election day than we think
I had an argument with my mom about this last night. Why would people choose to remain secret Harris voters for polls?
I’ve been saying for a while that nobody under 55 is answering an unexpected unknown phone call for a poster
Everybody please consider volunteering with the Harris campaign. I did my first phone banking session yesterday and it’s quite easy and only takes two hours and can be done from home. I figure it’s better to release my nervous energy somehow. Just Google “phone bank for Harris,” sign up for a time slot, and you’ll be linked to a Zoom call that begins at that time, in which you’ll be oriented and trained.
No, they aren’t. There are no secret Harris voters, or shy Trump voters, or any other stealth group (at least not in statistically significant numbers). What polls MIGHT be missing are enthusiastic Harris voters or exhausted Republicans.
If Harris overperforms (and I suspect she will) it’s because Harris supporters showed up and/or Trump supporters did not. Turnout is the unknown variable. Polls are very bad at predicting who will vote. When polls are significantly off it’s almost always because they got voter turnout wrong.
Vote. Vote early. Encourage everyone you know to vote early – especially people who might be inclined to put it off or stay home. We MUST drive up participation.
Seems plausible but instead of focusing your attention on the polls and what the polls say might happen it’s better to focus on the numerous places that now report on early voting and mail in voting turnout and the proportion of that voting that is democratic is very encouraging.
It will be a turnout election for sure.
Polls are also missing people that don’t answer random polls. I’ve never run into one, and wouldn’t take time out of my day to answer these kind of questions anyway if I did. Polls are meaningless
Interesting. I have a relative who’s husband is a batshit crazy maga moron. He’s telling his wife the she MUST take a photo of her ballot after she checks off Trump in the booth so he can be sure that she voted in accordance with his wishes!!!
Technically it’s illegal voter intimidation.
So I simply told her to take a photo where the check mark for the candidate is cropped out and explain to him that “I had trouble holding the ballot, camera and purse at the same time.” And then be pissed at him and put him on the defensive.
I’m beginning to suspect that there are a lot of women in this situation.
So to all of you that have to survive in a maga household go with the flow and stay safe. But when you’re in that voting booth vote your conscience.
Stay safe. We’re in your side.
I will say this over and over again. If your partner won’t let you vote for who you want to vote for, or you’re a woman whose husband is voting for a perp who wants to take away women’s rights, you need a divorce.
Literally this. I live in rural Pennsylvania and you would be surprised at how many secret Harris voters there are. We will flip this state blue.
I will believe the polls in mid November. Vote democrat across the board or shit is going to get real bad.
Republicans been saying out loud theirs plans and we have to assume they aren’t lying. A lot of time and money and maneuvering has gone into setting the mechanisms in place to hand republicans this election if it is even remotely close. Remember the Supreme Court handed Bush the election in 2000. This stuff happens and can happen again.
I don’t put much stock in polls, I’ve been voting in elections both national and local for years and I’ve never been asked to give my opinion in a poll. I just assume there are massive amounts of people who aren’t being asked to take part.
I think the polls are *severely* underestimating Harris. People keep saying this race is close but I think it’s a lot more lop-sided than polls suggest
Maga is all mouth all the time. It is too exhausting to argue with those folks, and while they can be decked out head to toe in maga gear, you wear one Harris shirt and they go apeshit. So yeah, a lot of us keeping our mouths shut and will vote Harris in.