Polls do not matter and what pollsters say even less.
Votes do. Vote and get your family and friends to vote.
Check your voter registration.
States with GOP administrations are purging voter lists.
itsyaboyjoel on
I’m at the stage of this election cycle, where if Trump wins, after ALL OF THE CRAZY SHIT he has done or said or implied…..
Well, I think this country deserves everything it has coming to them. You can’t say the voters were not warned.
Sunshinehappyfeet on
Every vote counts.
Vote Blue.
sedatedlife on
I would not be shocked if polling agencies over corrected to catch Trump supporters and he under performs this election while Harris out performs. But i will assume the worse and its ties.
URAPhallicy on
The Des Moinse Register never had a problem underestimating Trump’s support unlike other polls so unlike other polls had no reason to reweigh to find the mythical “shy Trump supporters”. Their poll a couple of weeks ago for Iowa had Trump at plus 4. That’s 4 points lower than the expected basement.
The polls are wrong. You can probably add plus 2-3 safely for every state for Harris….unless the pollsters realized their mistake the last couple of weeks and readjusted.
Pollsters suck at their job.
HeHateMe337 on
Where’s James Comey and Ben Ghazi?
boston_homo on
>The average in the key states that ultimately gave Trump victory were a bit more favorable to Clinton, but the forecast models still had her as the overwhelming favorite.
It’s all about projection with Republican politicians. Did trump insist 2020 was “stolen” because 2016 was stolen and he believes that’s just how elections are done? Hmmm.
Datacin3728 on
Just close your eyes and listen to Trump when he’s speaking.
His brain is jello at this point. He makes literally no sense about anything. He hasn’t formed a cognitive sentence in years.
Sorry for insulting jello.
moreesq on
One further confounding factor about polls is the proliferation of partisan efforts. Rasmussen and Trafalgar come to mind, but I suspect that the Republicans are funding polls other than those two. It makes the job of aggregators more difficult, to try to correct for leanings, and it creates the whipsaw effect when the media picks up Contradictory results. The second point that the article made was about creating a reasonable turnout model. Everyone is stumbling on that difficulty now.
LivingDracula on
I knock on about 150 doors per day right now for polling in Arizona.
You’d be shocked how many registered Republicans are voting for Harris and have said, unprompted, they want Trump dead.
Lol here I am asking who they are more likely to support and registered Republicans are saying this..
atticusfinch1973 on
As somebody from Canada, it’s absolutely insane that this man is even getting votes after everything that has happened and he’s said out loud. And I think the rest of the world agrees.
It speaks to the fact that the two party system is so polarized there are still people who won’t vote Democrat under any circumstance, even though the GOP candidate is obviously a criminal and has said blatantly racist and insane things for the past month.
obsertaries on
Who cares about polls anywhere other than in battleground states? I’ve never lived in a battleground state so I don’t even know what it’s like to have my voice mean something in the presidential election.
exitpursuedbybear on
>Some pollsters also argued that the public’s interpretations of the polls and forecast models are more responsible for the perception that Trump outperforms the polls — rather than the numbers themselves.
Well that’s just some straight up bull shit.
TheBeesBeesKnees on
Even if Trump doesn’t outperform the polls **again**, it will have taken polling 8 years to catch the “Trump bump”. And ironically, the polls would be catching up in the last election he would ever be in (assuming he’s too old or locked up in 2028). So in 2026 we would have an actual post-Trump off year election, and in 2028 we would have the first post-Trump election in 16 years.
So in my thinking, we will need at least four years to really see if the polls have stabilized at that point. In the meantime, I will flaunt the MC polls confirming my priors and discard the rest.
Celeres517 on
Awfully generous to themselves referring to slapping polls on their website as “news stories.”
BecomingJudasnMyMind on
This is gonna be a nail biter election. We won’t know the winner for a few days – and if Trump loses, we’ll be in for a never ending stream of lawsuits
Significant_Dark2062 on
I couldn’t care less what the polls say. After 2016, I will never believe poll trends ever again. Just get out and vote people.
new_for_confession on
Everyone, please vote even if you are “sure” your district is going one way or another.
Just vote.
ScottishBearViking on
Polls to me hold as much weight as chicken entrails. Might coincidentally align with reality, but rarely are they accurate anymore. That being said, I would love to see the ketsup tantrum if it works out like this.
PaperHands_Regard on
The “shy Trump voter” as they call it in this article or “silent majority” we used to hear about no longer exists. Trump supporters are anything but silent now. If the polls are still trying to account for this they could be off
RoboDonaldUpgrade on
So I’m not sure if anyone can conclusively answer this question for me, but how can I tell the difference between polsters and scammers? I’ve gotten a dozen or so text messages this election season asking me to fill out surveys on public opinion or to confirm who I plan to vote for, and I’ve responded to NONE of it because the odds of it being a spam scam seem too high. I’m a democrat in a red state so I’d like to represent myself in these polls but I can’t get over the instinct to not respond to numbers I don’t know.
gerryf19 on
All kinds of denying going on but 2020 polls were pretty accurate. If anything, the 2022 polls undercounted the Democrats
theswedishturtle on
I’ll believe that once Kamala wins. Until then, I’m making sure my vote and those of my family get counted.
dmcgrew on
I still can’t make sense of why there’s such a gap between senate vs presidential support. If you look at AZ the Dem senate candidate is up in the polls like 10-15 points, but the presidential race is super close. Same thing in PA, MI, etc just to a slightly lesser extent. I looked back at the 3 previous elections and the senate vs presidential vote was nearly identical.
VeryVito on
I was feeling good, but lately I’ve been traveling in MAGA lands and hearing think-cancer from right-wing radio shows, and the amount of crazy out there is still unnerving. Last night I heard a syndicated millionaire calling Harris, Walz, Bernie Sanders (wut?) and, for some reason, Barack Hussein Obama (They can’t skip that middle name) the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. And of course, they were “praying for Trump” and the brave Republican governors who aren’t letting transvestites beat up little girls. Truly craven stuff, but the callers were all in.
Overall-Farmer9969 on
When I have to talk to a customer who doesn’t like service quality, I always promise it won’t happen again regardless of the amount of control I have over that or my confidence it won’t.
nesp12 on
In past elections many trump supporters were embarrassed to admit it. This time they’re proud.
I_like_baseball90 on
The polls are shit, folks.
If you want a gauge of who’s doing better check out the donations raised.
Harris is absolutely blowing Trump out of the water. Let that be the way you tell.
Just vote. We got this.
Honestly, Trump did not gain voters after Jan 6. I think a pizza box could beat him right now.
Immediate_Thought656 on
Yeah I don’t give a shit. Either Harris wins in a landslide or Trump’s lackies steal the election. Vote, and bring 5 friends with you to vote!
JDogg126 on
I consider the polling industry as garbage content meant to create a narrative with nothing but the claim of “people are saying” with zero need to provide facts or evidence. It’s bullshit for infotainment only.
Assume that the worst possible outcome will happen if you don’t vote. Ignore polls.
Sventhetidar on
I have no hope after the 2020 election. That should never have been as close as it was.
an_agreeing_dothraki on
make it your personal mission to throw the polling organizations into chaos by burying Trump in the election
Swimming_Profit8857 on
Voted by mail today. Register and help your family and friends register and make sure you and they have a plan to submit a valid ballot on time.
executingsalesdaily on
There are people in my neighborhood that have trump signs who have the actual nerve to wave at me like they are normal. Nah, they are racist & traitors. Absolutely disgusting.
jrblockquote on
Dems have been outperforming polls for the past 4 years. I expect this trend to continue in November.
Easy_Apple_4817 on
Australian here. Please please please vote Democrat. We’ve got wannabe MAGAts looking on, drooling at the mouth. Our elections are next year so please give us a lead.
sigristl on
Don’t get complacent. Vote blue and send those right wing fascists packing! (I voted for Kamala yesterday!)
Sivoc on
I’m not gonna take one thing for granted. Trump CANNOT be president again. All this inflation we’ve seen is because we had to put our economy on the credit card when he was president during Covid. This is just the facts.
karenftx1 on
I feel that showing it as competitive is to stop cost apathy. Everyone was so sure Hillary was going to win per the polls. So this is to stop the overconfidence
39 Comments
Polls do not matter and what pollsters say even less.
Votes do. Vote and get your family and friends to vote.
Check your voter registration.
States with GOP administrations are purging voter lists.
I’m at the stage of this election cycle, where if Trump wins, after ALL OF THE CRAZY SHIT he has done or said or implied…..
Well, I think this country deserves everything it has coming to them. You can’t say the voters were not warned.
Every vote counts.
Vote Blue.
I would not be shocked if polling agencies over corrected to catch Trump supporters and he under performs this election while Harris out performs. But i will assume the worse and its ties.
The Des Moinse Register never had a problem underestimating Trump’s support unlike other polls so unlike other polls had no reason to reweigh to find the mythical “shy Trump supporters”. Their poll a couple of weeks ago for Iowa had Trump at plus 4. That’s 4 points lower than the expected basement.
The polls are wrong. You can probably add plus 2-3 safely for every state for Harris….unless the pollsters realized their mistake the last couple of weeks and readjusted.
Pollsters suck at their job.
Where’s James Comey and Ben Ghazi?
>The average in the key states that ultimately gave Trump victory were a bit more favorable to Clinton, but the forecast models still had her as the overwhelming favorite.
It’s all about projection with Republican politicians. Did trump insist 2020 was “stolen” because 2016 was stolen and he believes that’s just how elections are done? Hmmm.
Just close your eyes and listen to Trump when he’s speaking.
His brain is jello at this point. He makes literally no sense about anything. He hasn’t formed a cognitive sentence in years.
Sorry for insulting jello.
One further confounding factor about polls is the proliferation of partisan efforts. Rasmussen and Trafalgar come to mind, but I suspect that the Republicans are funding polls other than those two. It makes the job of aggregators more difficult, to try to correct for leanings, and it creates the whipsaw effect when the media picks up Contradictory results. The second point that the article made was about creating a reasonable turnout model. Everyone is stumbling on that difficulty now.
I knock on about 150 doors per day right now for polling in Arizona.
You’d be shocked how many registered Republicans are voting for Harris and have said, unprompted, they want Trump dead.
Lol here I am asking who they are more likely to support and registered Republicans are saying this..
As somebody from Canada, it’s absolutely insane that this man is even getting votes after everything that has happened and he’s said out loud. And I think the rest of the world agrees.
It speaks to the fact that the two party system is so polarized there are still people who won’t vote Democrat under any circumstance, even though the GOP candidate is obviously a criminal and has said blatantly racist and insane things for the past month.
Who cares about polls anywhere other than in battleground states? I’ve never lived in a battleground state so I don’t even know what it’s like to have my voice mean something in the presidential election.
>Some pollsters also argued that the public’s interpretations of the polls and forecast models are more responsible for the perception that Trump outperforms the polls — rather than the numbers themselves.
Well that’s just some straight up bull shit.
Even if Trump doesn’t outperform the polls **again**, it will have taken polling 8 years to catch the “Trump bump”. And ironically, the polls would be catching up in the last election he would ever be in (assuming he’s too old or locked up in 2028). So in 2026 we would have an actual post-Trump off year election, and in 2028 we would have the first post-Trump election in 16 years.
So in my thinking, we will need at least four years to really see if the polls have stabilized at that point. In the meantime, I will flaunt the MC polls confirming my priors and discard the rest.
Awfully generous to themselves referring to slapping polls on their website as “news stories.”
This is gonna be a nail biter election. We won’t know the winner for a few days – and if Trump loses, we’ll be in for a never ending stream of lawsuits
I couldn’t care less what the polls say. After 2016, I will never believe poll trends ever again. Just get out and vote people.
Everyone, please vote even if you are “sure” your district is going one way or another.
Just vote.
Polls to me hold as much weight as chicken entrails. Might coincidentally align with reality, but rarely are they accurate anymore. That being said, I would love to see the ketsup tantrum if it works out like this.
The “shy Trump voter” as they call it in this article or “silent majority” we used to hear about no longer exists. Trump supporters are anything but silent now. If the polls are still trying to account for this they could be off
So I’m not sure if anyone can conclusively answer this question for me, but how can I tell the difference between polsters and scammers? I’ve gotten a dozen or so text messages this election season asking me to fill out surveys on public opinion or to confirm who I plan to vote for, and I’ve responded to NONE of it because the odds of it being a spam scam seem too high. I’m a democrat in a red state so I’d like to represent myself in these polls but I can’t get over the instinct to not respond to numbers I don’t know.
All kinds of denying going on but 2020 polls were pretty accurate. If anything, the 2022 polls undercounted the Democrats
I’ll believe that once Kamala wins. Until then, I’m making sure my vote and those of my family get counted.
I still can’t make sense of why there’s such a gap between senate vs presidential support. If you look at AZ the Dem senate candidate is up in the polls like 10-15 points, but the presidential race is super close. Same thing in PA, MI, etc just to a slightly lesser extent. I looked back at the 3 previous elections and the senate vs presidential vote was nearly identical.
I was feeling good, but lately I’ve been traveling in MAGA lands and hearing think-cancer from right-wing radio shows, and the amount of crazy out there is still unnerving. Last night I heard a syndicated millionaire calling Harris, Walz, Bernie Sanders (wut?) and, for some reason, Barack Hussein Obama (They can’t skip that middle name) the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. And of course, they were “praying for Trump” and the brave Republican governors who aren’t letting transvestites beat up little girls. Truly craven stuff, but the callers were all in.
When I have to talk to a customer who doesn’t like service quality, I always promise it won’t happen again regardless of the amount of control I have over that or my confidence it won’t.
In past elections many trump supporters were embarrassed to admit it. This time they’re proud.
The polls are shit, folks.
If you want a gauge of who’s doing better check out the donations raised.
Harris is absolutely blowing Trump out of the water. Let that be the way you tell.
Just vote. We got this.
Honestly, Trump did not gain voters after Jan 6. I think a pizza box could beat him right now.
Yeah I don’t give a shit. Either Harris wins in a landslide or Trump’s lackies steal the election. Vote, and bring 5 friends with you to vote!
I consider the polling industry as garbage content meant to create a narrative with nothing but the claim of “people are saying” with zero need to provide facts or evidence. It’s bullshit for infotainment only.
Assume that the worst possible outcome will happen if you don’t vote. Ignore polls.
I have no hope after the 2020 election. That should never have been as close as it was.
make it your personal mission to throw the polling organizations into chaos by burying Trump in the election
Voted by mail today. Register and help your family and friends register and make sure you and they have a plan to submit a valid ballot on time.
There are people in my neighborhood that have trump signs who have the actual nerve to wave at me like they are normal. Nah, they are racist & traitors. Absolutely disgusting.
Dems have been outperforming polls for the past 4 years. I expect this trend to continue in November.
Australian here. Please please please vote Democrat. We’ve got wannabe MAGAts looking on, drooling at the mouth. Our elections are next year so please give us a lead.
Don’t get complacent. Vote blue and send those right wing fascists packing! (I voted for Kamala yesterday!)
I’m not gonna take one thing for granted. Trump CANNOT be president again. All this inflation we’ve seen is because we had to put our economy on the credit card when he was president during Covid. This is just the facts.
I feel that showing it as competitive is to stop cost apathy. Everyone was so sure Hillary was going to win per the polls. So this is to stop the overconfidence