> Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 40% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election. Her lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
> Among likely voters, Harris led 50% to 44%.
This is the largest national lead for Harris reported by Reuters/Ipsos and one of Harris’s highest national leads in *any* poll, I believe. When you look at likely voters, Harris is leading by 6 points, 50% to 44%. Obviously this poll could be an outlier, but if she really is winning the national popular vote by 6 or 7 points, I don’t see how she doesn’t win the Electoral College and the presidency.
newnewtonium on
We must overwhelmingly let our voices be heard and our votes counted. The only way forward is to destroy Trump at the polls.
The-Real-Number-One on
THIS is why Trump is going to debate again. The only reason he is saying ‘no’ now is because he wants some kind of concession from Kamala so he can feel like a big boy. Unfortunately for him she is smart and won’t negotiate.
GratefuLdPhisH on
Seriously who are these 40% of voters who think yeah trump would be good again as a president?
The man literally attempted a coup several different ways
NoReserve7293 on
What is wrong in this country when such a flawed candidate as Trump can still get 40% of the national vote? Is this a combination of racism and ignorance is or just racism? Vote, vote, vote blue.
Hari_Azole on
VOTE! Vote like she’s behind in the polls!
3rn3stb0rg9 on
This is a great quality polling outfit
DrunkenTypist on
This is a national poll. The Presidential election is state by state and unbelievably (to me at any rate) there are States that have them neck and neck and others that even have this orange poltroon ahead!
ABlackOrchid on
*46.61% vs 40.48%
Fixed the sorta clickbaity title. Good news is good but the exact truth is important.
Nuclear_Cadillacs on
National polls don’t matter at all. Results like this only serve to lead people to complacency and not to vote. The only polls I care about are swing state polls.
shockinglyunoriginal on
The Japan news.com knows what’s up lol
bonyponyride on
National polls are much less important than the polls/trends from the critical swing states, which are mostly still statistically even.
TheOhrenberger on
It’s definitely not a coincidence that the polls get wider as Trump goes further and further off the rails. This country is tired of his shit.
The__Illuminaughty on
>Harris had a lead of six percentage points based on unrounded figures – which showed her with support from 46.61% of registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48%, according to the three-day poll that closed on Monday. The Democrat’s lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Wonder if the greatest genius the world has ever seen is regretting the dogs story now (of course hes not lol)
NotAnotherEmpire on
All of these figures are possible with a central tendency of Harris +3.5. The split in polling though by type is pretty stark.
Scientific online polls are near non-competitive margins like this one. Both nationally and in the implied results from state polls e.g. Wisconsin 52-48 Harris (Marquette isn’t a phone pollster anymore, deeming it unreliable).
Phone polls are generally closer to that + 2-3 D range where you wonder what the EC bias of Pennsylvania is vs. a national %.
And then there’s whatever NYT / Sienna is doing which is currently to the right of the partisan R pollsters with super-cheap methods. If NYT/Sienna wasn’t included at all, Trump would look pretty cooked. Their split and weight in averages has that big of an effect.
reddittorbrigade on
CNN has been bragging on tv that Trump is the most trusted in economy.
Selective breaking news.
toughpanda on
I’m not invested in the national polls anymore. The only ones that matter at this point are the swing state polls. We know more people overall like her more than Trump, but it’s the stupid electoral college that are making this thing an uphill battle for her.
PreparationAdvanced9 on
Fuck this poll. Fuck all the polls. Vote like humanity depends on this election because it does. A Trump victory sets us back centuries if not a millennia due to climate change
jish5 on
God the sooner this election is over with (and hopefully Kamala winning), the better. If Kamala wins, this will hopefully be the final straw to deal with Trump once and for all and hopefully those dealing with investigations against him realize that sitting around and taking too long is no longer viable against such a horrible person who will try this shit again in 2 years.
Necessary_Chip9934 on
Should be 90-10%! I don’t understand why the polls are so close. (Not looking for an explanation, btw.)
Madmandocv1 on
There are a lot of people who are lying to pollsters. These skew heavily toward Trump. Most of them are ashamed to admit what they are going to do. Some are paranoid. Some are just chaos loving and are messing up the poll for the Lols. This is why Trump is *always* polling 6% behind only to massively over perform in the real election. If Harris doesn’t have 50+%, she is 1-2% ahead at best.
21 Comments
[Here is the Reuters article on their latest poll](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-builds-lead-over-trump-voters-see-her-debate-winner-reutersipsos-poll-2024-09-12/):
> Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 40% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election. Her lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
> Among likely voters, Harris led 50% to 44%.
This is the largest national lead for Harris reported by Reuters/Ipsos and one of Harris’s highest national leads in *any* poll, I believe. When you look at likely voters, Harris is leading by 6 points, 50% to 44%. Obviously this poll could be an outlier, but if she really is winning the national popular vote by 6 or 7 points, I don’t see how she doesn’t win the Electoral College and the presidency.
We must overwhelmingly let our voices be heard and our votes counted. The only way forward is to destroy Trump at the polls.
THIS is why Trump is going to debate again. The only reason he is saying ‘no’ now is because he wants some kind of concession from Kamala so he can feel like a big boy. Unfortunately for him she is smart and won’t negotiate.
Seriously who are these 40% of voters who think yeah trump would be good again as a president?
The man literally attempted a coup several different ways
What is wrong in this country when such a flawed candidate as Trump can still get 40% of the national vote? Is this a combination of racism and ignorance is or just racism? Vote, vote, vote blue.
VOTE! Vote like she’s behind in the polls!
This is a great quality polling outfit
This is a national poll. The Presidential election is state by state and unbelievably (to me at any rate) there are States that have them neck and neck and others that even have this orange poltroon ahead!
*46.61% vs 40.48%
Fixed the sorta clickbaity title. Good news is good but the exact truth is important.
National polls don’t matter at all. Results like this only serve to lead people to complacency and not to vote. The only polls I care about are swing state polls.
The Japan news.com knows what’s up lol
National polls are much less important than the polls/trends from the critical swing states, which are mostly still statistically even.
It’s definitely not a coincidence that the polls get wider as Trump goes further and further off the rails. This country is tired of his shit.
>Harris had a lead of six percentage points based on unrounded figures – which showed her with support from 46.61% of registered voters while Trump was backed by 40.48%, according to the three-day poll that closed on Monday. The Democrat’s lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in a Sept 11-12 Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Wonder if the greatest genius the world has ever seen is regretting the dogs story now (of course hes not lol)
All of these figures are possible with a central tendency of Harris +3.5. The split in polling though by type is pretty stark.
Scientific online polls are near non-competitive margins like this one. Both nationally and in the implied results from state polls e.g. Wisconsin 52-48 Harris (Marquette isn’t a phone pollster anymore, deeming it unreliable).
Phone polls are generally closer to that + 2-3 D range where you wonder what the EC bias of Pennsylvania is vs. a national %.
And then there’s whatever NYT / Sienna is doing which is currently to the right of the partisan R pollsters with super-cheap methods. If NYT/Sienna wasn’t included at all, Trump would look pretty cooked. Their split and weight in averages has that big of an effect.
CNN has been bragging on tv that Trump is the most trusted in economy.
Selective breaking news.
I’m not invested in the national polls anymore. The only ones that matter at this point are the swing state polls. We know more people overall like her more than Trump, but it’s the stupid electoral college that are making this thing an uphill battle for her.
Fuck this poll. Fuck all the polls. Vote like humanity depends on this election because it does. A Trump victory sets us back centuries if not a millennia due to climate change
God the sooner this election is over with (and hopefully Kamala winning), the better. If Kamala wins, this will hopefully be the final straw to deal with Trump once and for all and hopefully those dealing with investigations against him realize that sitting around and taking too long is no longer viable against such a horrible person who will try this shit again in 2 years.
Should be 90-10%! I don’t understand why the polls are so close. (Not looking for an explanation, btw.)
There are a lot of people who are lying to pollsters. These skew heavily toward Trump. Most of them are ashamed to admit what they are going to do. Some are paranoid. Some are just chaos loving and are messing up the poll for the Lols. This is why Trump is *always* polling 6% behind only to massively over perform in the real election. If Harris doesn’t have 50+%, she is 1-2% ahead at best.