The state-by-state numbers that show Albanese’s big problem – and Dutton’s bigger challenge
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Voters have turned on Labor in the two biggest states and lifted the Coalition to a stronger position nationwide, heightening the prospect of a tight federal election that forces the government to scramble for power in a hung parliament.
The trend has cut the government’s primary vote to 29 per cent in NSW and 30 per cent in Victoria, dragging it below its results at the last election despite attempts to shore up support in the southern states.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a slight edge over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the two states when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister, ahead by 39 to 33 per cent in Victoria and 36 to 34 per cent in NSW.
But the exclusive findings show the two leaders are neck-and-neck at a national level, with 35 per cent support each, while 30 per cent of voters are undecided about who is best to lead the nation.
The quarterly analysis of the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, is based on responses from 4620 voters from July to September and similar surveys in previous quarters.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings showed a swing of 2.5 per cent against Labor in two-party terms, enough to lead to a minority government.
“If repeated uniformly at an election, this would obviously put the government’s majority in jeopardy, but with the crossbench skewed to independents and Greens, the government would likely still govern,” he said. “This does not say the Coalition are in contention for a majority at all, and a minority Coalition government is also much less likely than a Labor one at this stage.”
Albanese took power at the last election after Labor gained 52 per cent of the national vote in two-party terms, giving it 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives.
The quarterly Resolve analysis finds only negligible swings in the two-party result in Queensland and Western Australia since the election, but concludes that Dutton has a greater chance of gaining ground in NSW and Victoria.
“This is largely driven by Coalition gains among blue-collar, lower-income groups in the suburbs and regions, and could flow higher up the pendulum in areas where there was a high No vote in the Voice referendum,” Reed said.
“But the real wildcards in this election will be the non-classical contests where the Greens and independents play a greater part.”
Albanese is preparing to campaign in marginal electorates this week – including in Western Australia – after returning from his weekend visit to the United States on the weekend to attend a “Quad” security meeting with United States President Joe Biden and leaders from Japan and India.
Dutton and his campaign team are working on plans to gain Victorian seats including Aston and Chisholm in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, McEwen in the outer north, and Goldstein alongside Port Philip.
The opposition leader has encountered major challenges in NSW, however, after the Liberal Party state division failed to nominate for local council elections, sparking doubts about whether the party machine is ready for the federal campaign.
Dutton is due to speak in Sydney on Monday at a business forum on nuclear power, raising expectations about the Coalition’s energy plan.
Albanese has moved to protect Labor seats in Western Australia – where the party reached a rare high at the last election – by visiting the state with cabinet ministers earlier this month and offering production tax credits for mining companies.
How the vote breaks down across the country
The Resolve analysis finds the Labor primary vote has shrunk from 37 to 29 per cent in Western Australia since the election, but it suggests that much of this has gone to independent candidates. The Coalition primary was 35 per cent in the latest quarter, the same as the result at the last election.
The findings confirm strong support for Dutton in his home state of Queensland, where he leads as preferred prime minister by 40 to 29 per cent.
The Labor primary vote has fallen from 27 to 25 per cent in Queensland since the election. The Coalition has increased its primary vote from 40 to 42 per cent in that state. Both these shifts are within the margin of error for the latest analysis.
The quarterly analysis collates figures from the Resolve Political Monitor each month rather than asking new questions, leading to a larger sample size that produces results with a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points – much smaller than for monthly surveys. The margin of error is higher, however, for the results on individual states – especially those with smaller populations, such as Western Australia.
At a national level, the findings show Labor lifted its primary vote from 32.6 per cent at the last election to a high of 40 per cent in the subsequent months, then declined in a series of cascades to 28 per cent in the latest quarter.
The trend has also lifted the Coalition above its 2022 election results in Victoria and NSW, marking the first time Dutton has done so in the quarterly results from the Resolve Political Monitor.
The Coalition gained a primary vote of 37 per cent in NSW at the last election and now holds 38 per cent in the quarterly Resolve analysis. It gained 33 per cent in Victoria at the last election and now has 35 per cent in the quarterly analysis. These changes are within the margin of error for these states.
jt4643277378 on
Is Duttons problem the weird penis on his face in this photo?
wombles_wombat on
I honestly do not get how anyone can want Dutton to be the prime minister. It’s not even an objection to NLP right-wing policies, e.g. their bollocks of a nuclear policy. It’s that just like Scott Morrison, he’s an offensive example of a human being.
3 Comments
The state-by-state numbers that show Albanese’s big problem – and Dutton’s bigger challenge
We’re sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. We’re working to restore it. Please try again later.
Voters have turned on Labor in the two biggest states and lifted the Coalition to a stronger position nationwide, heightening the prospect of a tight federal election that forces the government to scramble for power in a hung parliament.
The trend has cut the government’s primary vote to 29 per cent in NSW and 30 per cent in Victoria, dragging it below its results at the last election despite attempts to shore up support in the southern states.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has a slight edge over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in the two states when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister, ahead by 39 to 33 per cent in Victoria and 36 to 34 per cent in NSW.
But the exclusive findings show the two leaders are neck-and-neck at a national level, with 35 per cent support each, while 30 per cent of voters are undecided about who is best to lead the nation.
The quarterly analysis of the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, is based on responses from 4620 voters from July to September and similar surveys in previous quarters.
Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings showed a swing of 2.5 per cent against Labor in two-party terms, enough to lead to a minority government.
“If repeated uniformly at an election, this would obviously put the government’s majority in jeopardy, but with the crossbench skewed to independents and Greens, the government would likely still govern,” he said. “This does not say the Coalition are in contention for a majority at all, and a minority Coalition government is also much less likely than a Labor one at this stage.”
Albanese took power at the last election after Labor gained 52 per cent of the national vote in two-party terms, giving it 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives.
The quarterly Resolve analysis finds only negligible swings in the two-party result in Queensland and Western Australia since the election, but concludes that Dutton has a greater chance of gaining ground in NSW and Victoria.
“This is largely driven by Coalition gains among blue-collar, lower-income groups in the suburbs and regions, and could flow higher up the pendulum in areas where there was a high No vote in the Voice referendum,” Reed said.
“But the real wildcards in this election will be the non-classical contests where the Greens and independents play a greater part.”
Albanese is preparing to campaign in marginal electorates this week – including in Western Australia – after returning from his weekend visit to the United States on the weekend to attend a “Quad” security meeting with United States President Joe Biden and leaders from Japan and India.
Dutton and his campaign team are working on plans to gain Victorian seats including Aston and Chisholm in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, McEwen in the outer north, and Goldstein alongside Port Philip.
The opposition leader has encountered major challenges in NSW, however, after the Liberal Party state division failed to nominate for local council elections, sparking doubts about whether the party machine is ready for the federal campaign.
Dutton is due to speak in Sydney on Monday at a business forum on nuclear power, raising expectations about the Coalition’s energy plan.
Albanese has moved to protect Labor seats in Western Australia – where the party reached a rare high at the last election – by visiting the state with cabinet ministers earlier this month and offering production tax credits for mining companies.
How the vote breaks down across the country
The Resolve analysis finds the Labor primary vote has shrunk from 37 to 29 per cent in Western Australia since the election, but it suggests that much of this has gone to independent candidates. The Coalition primary was 35 per cent in the latest quarter, the same as the result at the last election.
The findings confirm strong support for Dutton in his home state of Queensland, where he leads as preferred prime minister by 40 to 29 per cent.
The Labor primary vote has fallen from 27 to 25 per cent in Queensland since the election. The Coalition has increased its primary vote from 40 to 42 per cent in that state. Both these shifts are within the margin of error for the latest analysis.
The quarterly analysis collates figures from the Resolve Political Monitor each month rather than asking new questions, leading to a larger sample size that produces results with a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points – much smaller than for monthly surveys. The margin of error is higher, however, for the results on individual states – especially those with smaller populations, such as Western Australia.
At a national level, the findings show Labor lifted its primary vote from 32.6 per cent at the last election to a high of 40 per cent in the subsequent months, then declined in a series of cascades to 28 per cent in the latest quarter.
The trend has also lifted the Coalition above its 2022 election results in Victoria and NSW, marking the first time Dutton has done so in the quarterly results from the Resolve Political Monitor.
The Coalition gained a primary vote of 37 per cent in NSW at the last election and now holds 38 per cent in the quarterly Resolve analysis. It gained 33 per cent in Victoria at the last election and now has 35 per cent in the quarterly analysis. These changes are within the margin of error for these states.
Is Duttons problem the weird penis on his face in this photo?
I honestly do not get how anyone can want Dutton to be the prime minister. It’s not even an objection to NLP right-wing policies, e.g. their bollocks of a nuclear policy. It’s that just like Scott Morrison, he’s an offensive example of a human being.
Can someone explain why they like Peter Dutton?