We should expect much better from these university leaders – both ethically and in terms of restraint. In fact, they have behaved like toddlers in a lolly shop.
The core failing has been the government’s inability to control the overall migrant intake, leading to excessive population growth which in turn has led to several problems – and not just housing-related. Uncapped temporary visa categories are the main culprit.
Initially, the government interpreted the surging post-Covid migrant numbers as simply a reaction to the opening of the borders. Indeed, these large number of migrants were welcomed, with their entry facilitated by giving more resources to the Department of Home Affairs to process visa applications with speed. The hapless (and now former) home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, declared that migrants were Australia’s ‘special sauce’.
Into this mix entered the equally inept Centre for Population located in Treasury. Its capacity to accurately predict the key variable of net overseas migration (long-term arrivals minus long-term departures) is akin to a very poor darts player. You only need look at the figures to realise that the officials in this section of Treasury simply don’t know what they’re doing.
In the 2022 budget, it was predicted that the NOM for 2022-23 would be 180,000. The actual figure was 538,000. For 2023-24, Treasury forecast NOM at 213,00. Even when it updated its projections, Treasury still expected NOM for last financial year to be just under 300,000. When the figure is finalised, it will be over 500,000.
This is so wrong you wonder how the officials keep their jobs, which they probably wouldn’t in the private sector.
We also know from the recently released national accounts that the population continues to grow at unacceptably high rates.
In the June quarter of this year, the recorded population growth was the second highest on record, running at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent. We are adding far more than an extra Canberra each year, but most of the new migrants are heading to Melbourne and Sydney.
I have made this point before, but it is worth repeating. Half of the NOM is made up of international students. The only way for the government to reach its NOM target – it’s 260,000 for this financial year – is for the number of international students entering the country to be scaled back significantly – slashed, in fact – as well as ensure there are more departures. There is no other way.
This is where the government’s cack-handed policy to restrict the number of new international students comes in. Having bent over backwards to facilitate the entry of students, the government turned on a dime by introducing various measures to try to deter their entry. There were new language requirements; new financial requirements; a slight reduction in work rights; there was Ministerial Direction 107 that has led to much higher visa rejection rates for applicants from certain countries.
While these changes have made some difference to the composition of the intake and the institutions in which the students are enrolling, it looks like international student enrolments in 2024 will be the highest on record, particularly at the Go8 universities.
GaryTheGuineaPig on
I was a chef for about 5 years back in the early 2000s, before I got my shit together. Well I say chef, more like line cook.
It’s not that I wouldn’t trust the Uni chefs, it’s just I wouldn’t trust them to be clear minded when they make decisions.
Hopping_Mad99 on
Just wait for Shorten to start his new Vice Chancellor role.
I bet he has already started lobbying.
AssistMobile675 on
International student numbers should have been capped years ago.
Soft-Butterfly7532 on
They are rightly protecting the interests of the university. A university is not just there to serve students. It has its own interests. If immigration numbers are to be capped then the government needs to step in to replace the huge funding shortfall that will result.
5 Comments
**PAYWALL:**
We should expect much better from these university leaders – both ethically and in terms of restraint. In fact, they have behaved like toddlers in a lolly shop.
The core failing has been the government’s inability to control the overall migrant intake, leading to excessive population growth which in turn has led to several problems – and not just housing-related. Uncapped temporary visa categories are the main culprit.
Initially, the government interpreted the surging post-Covid migrant numbers as simply a reaction to the opening of the borders. Indeed, these large number of migrants were welcomed, with their entry facilitated by giving more resources to the Department of Home Affairs to process visa applications with speed. The hapless (and now former) home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, declared that migrants were Australia’s ‘special sauce’.
Into this mix entered the equally inept Centre for Population located in Treasury. Its capacity to accurately predict the key variable of net overseas migration (long-term arrivals minus long-term departures) is akin to a very poor darts player. You only need look at the figures to realise that the officials in this section of Treasury simply don’t know what they’re doing.
In the 2022 budget, it was predicted that the NOM for 2022-23 would be 180,000. The actual figure was 538,000. For 2023-24, Treasury forecast NOM at 213,00. Even when it updated its projections, Treasury still expected NOM for last financial year to be just under 300,000. When the figure is finalised, it will be over 500,000.
This is so wrong you wonder how the officials keep their jobs, which they probably wouldn’t in the private sector.
We also know from the recently released national accounts that the population continues to grow at unacceptably high rates.
In the June quarter of this year, the recorded population growth was the second highest on record, running at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent. We are adding far more than an extra Canberra each year, but most of the new migrants are heading to Melbourne and Sydney.
I have made this point before, but it is worth repeating. Half of the NOM is made up of international students. The only way for the government to reach its NOM target – it’s 260,000 for this financial year – is for the number of international students entering the country to be scaled back significantly – slashed, in fact – as well as ensure there are more departures. There is no other way.
This is where the government’s cack-handed policy to restrict the number of new international students comes in. Having bent over backwards to facilitate the entry of students, the government turned on a dime by introducing various measures to try to deter their entry. There were new language requirements; new financial requirements; a slight reduction in work rights; there was Ministerial Direction 107 that has led to much higher visa rejection rates for applicants from certain countries.
While these changes have made some difference to the composition of the intake and the institutions in which the students are enrolling, it looks like international student enrolments in 2024 will be the highest on record, particularly at the Go8 universities.
I was a chef for about 5 years back in the early 2000s, before I got my shit together. Well I say chef, more like line cook.
It’s not that I wouldn’t trust the Uni chefs, it’s just I wouldn’t trust them to be clear minded when they make decisions.
Just wait for Shorten to start his new Vice Chancellor role.
I bet he has already started lobbying.
International student numbers should have been capped years ago.
They are rightly protecting the interests of the university. A university is not just there to serve students. It has its own interests. If immigration numbers are to be capped then the government needs to step in to replace the huge funding shortfall that will result.