I think if Carney runs, he’ll probably be a unifying candidate the various wings can rally behind due to his experience/connections & multifaceted platform etc. I think that a civil war would be more likely in the event that he didn’t run when an heir apparent would be less clear and more mudslinging would be brought up in regards to disagreements over Trudeau era policies (especially if people like Morneau opt to run who will probably use their spats with Trudeau to distance themselves from his government and it’s unpopularity etc.)
Though it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Trudeau to resign now since 6-12 months to the next election is too soon for a new leader to come up with a strong platform, so it’s better for Trudeau to go down with the ship now. (the time from resignation would have been between 2021-2023). Carney’s chances of forming a government generally improve the more time he has to prep (especially if he’s running against an unpopular incumbent Poilievre in 4-5 years).
Jaded_Promotion8806 on
I’ve flipped flopped on this a bunch but I’m increasingly of the belief that it’s not if, it’s when that Carney takes over the Liberal party. I don’t really even understand who the “progressive” faction of the liberal party even is nor how they can expect to make a case for themselves against Carney, given there’s so much more to gain from the right than the left right now.
zoziw on
I don’t think Trudeau lies awake at night worried about a Liberal civil war after he leaves. The idea that Trudeau is staying on to prevent one is silly.
My personal view of Trudeau is that he doesn’t see himself as the Prime Minister of Canada as much as he sees himself the personification of Canada. He believes he can beat Poilievre in an election campaign and, when he looks around, he doesn’t see another Liberal who he thinks can.
3 Comments
I think if Carney runs, he’ll probably be a unifying candidate the various wings can rally behind due to his experience/connections & multifaceted platform etc. I think that a civil war would be more likely in the event that he didn’t run when an heir apparent would be less clear and more mudslinging would be brought up in regards to disagreements over Trudeau era policies (especially if people like Morneau opt to run who will probably use their spats with Trudeau to distance themselves from his government and it’s unpopularity etc.)
Though it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Trudeau to resign now since 6-12 months to the next election is too soon for a new leader to come up with a strong platform, so it’s better for Trudeau to go down with the ship now. (the time from resignation would have been between 2021-2023). Carney’s chances of forming a government generally improve the more time he has to prep (especially if he’s running against an unpopular incumbent Poilievre in 4-5 years).
I’ve flipped flopped on this a bunch but I’m increasingly of the belief that it’s not if, it’s when that Carney takes over the Liberal party. I don’t really even understand who the “progressive” faction of the liberal party even is nor how they can expect to make a case for themselves against Carney, given there’s so much more to gain from the right than the left right now.
I don’t think Trudeau lies awake at night worried about a Liberal civil war after he leaves. The idea that Trudeau is staying on to prevent one is silly.
My personal view of Trudeau is that he doesn’t see himself as the Prime Minister of Canada as much as he sees himself the personification of Canada. He believes he can beat Poilievre in an election campaign and, when he looks around, he doesn’t see another Liberal who he thinks can.