> Vice President Harris holds a two-point advantage over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, a new poll from AARP shows.
>
> In the recent survey, Harris garners 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 1 percent support and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver receives statistically no support. Another 3 percent say they are undecided.
>
> In a head-to-head matchup, Harris’s lead over Trump ticks up by 1 point, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided, the poll found.
>
> The latest survey marks a 7-point shift from a previous poll conducted in April, months before President Biden withdrew from the race, when Biden trailed the former president by 5 points.
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe; pick the best state to spend your dough…
The Harris campaign is spending nearly 200 million on ads in Pennsylvania (through Election Day) and dramatically outspending Trump in all the swing states. Their ground game appears to be strong too. Now, it’s up to Kamala and Tim to close the deal.
Zepcleanerfan on
The polls suck. Voting and volunteering is good
deviousmajik on
That it’s not 20 points is completely insane.
Das_Man on
The AARP polls tend to trend right too, so this is great for Harris.
The_Woman_of_Gont on
This lead is going to disappear. The Longshoremen strike is going to end the campaign. Get ready for Trump camps.
arrakis2020 on
Just 2 points to choose between governance and bat shit chaos. WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON?? PEOPLE, WAKE UP!!
ishtar_the_move on
Biden was leading Trump by 6 points on Oct 1st, 2020.
Fufeysfdmd on
Add it to the aggregate. Individual polls mean nothing.
If we criticize polls that are good for Trump then we need to apply that same criticism to polls that are good for Harris
Who takes polls? What’s the sample size? Did they weight the results? Etc.
Kennydoe on
It’s ridiculous that it’s still so close.
cluelessminer on
I’m betting on WI, MI, PA, and AZ for Harris. GA and NC will be very close calls, so it’s hard to say. I want the result to be a massive landslide in the end for Kamala and Tim!
Let’s go VOTE!!!
nylons_grl on
As a citizen of the commonwealth,!let me say that she needs a bigger lead.
nylons_grl on
Winning the blue wall states including PA + 1 single additional electoral vote from Nebraska will be 270, enough for Harris to become the first woman president
EminentBean on
PA voters for Trump, what the hell ie wrong with you guys?
Seriously do you need help?
Whats going on?
Morepastor on
Hardly a lead. Check your registration and plan on voting and vote early if you can.
dna1999 on
Makes up for the Trump +2 poll in NC (fortunately it has Robinson down by 16 points)
musain8 on
We need to crush MAGA.
Vote (obviously), talk to your friends and family, volunteer, and donate to save our democracy.
If we can pull this off we can start moving past hearing Don’s voice every damn day.
william4534 on
There’s 2 paths 2 victory.
Pennsylvania, or Nevada + 1 of Georgia or North Carolina.
Also if Wisconsin falls, that also requires Georgia or North Carolina to flip.
However, if we’re being honest, NC and GA will almost certainly vote to the right of Pennsylvania, so it’s essentially Pennsylvania or bust, both for Kamala and for democracy as a whole.
Let me repeat that: **a couple thousand people in Pennsylvania will decide if democracy continues in the US or not, and they’re almost certainly not aware of this fact**
innnikki on
Yall, I’ve seen three separate pollsters listed on 538 over the last few days that have Harris losing Pennsylvania. Plenty are saying she’s ahead, but this will be a nail biter. It would be hard to win without PA
FortyYearOldVirgin on
Two hours later – “Harris trailing in PA by a lot!!”
This is getting tiring. Gotta stay off this sub for a few weeks.
Ok_War_8328 on
People who support Trump must think like him. And that is truly sad.
efrique on
What was the margin of error of this poll? What is the house bias?
Why should I think it’s not about even plus some unidentified bias and a bit of random noise?
atxlrj on
The Biden admin and the Harris campaign haven’t done a good enough job hitting back on the economy narratives and it’s hurting them. I genuinely think that without the cemented idea that the Biden admin hasn’t managed the economy well, Trump would be having a much harder time.
When you look at the economy pre-COVID to today, the US has performed better than any other G7 country. While the US had the second-highest cumulative inflation of G7 countries, it also had by far the most cumulative economic growth (almost twice the next highest country). The US unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in the last year of Trump’s Presidency and is now at 3.9%. When you consider that the G7 all typically aim for 2% inflation and 1-3% GDP growth, the US is the only country within typical ratios when comparing cumulative inflation to cumulative growth (with a 2:1 ratio). The UK, a country governed through the pandemic by Trump-allied Conservatives who have been campaigning with him on the trail, experienced higher inflation and stagnant growth, with a 10:1 inflation-growth ratio and rising unemployment.
The kicker? Real wages (inflation-adjusted) have risen since 2019. Consensus wisdom would dictate that people have less money relative to prices than they did in 2019, but real wages have grown for every income group. The lowest income earners (10th percentile) have experienced the biggest gains, some 12% real wage growth since 2019; middle income earners (40th-60th) have seen 3% real wage growth.
The Biden administration’s fatal flaw has always been communications and it stems from the top but the Harris campaign needed to come out and confront the inflation issue head-on and present the case that the US outperformed similarly-situated countries, including those run by Trumpian conservatives. She should acknowledge the pain and anxiety caused by high inflation, but should tout the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, and point out that Trump’s flagship economic policy, tariffs, doesn’t even make sense as a solution for inflation, never mind all of the other problems he wants to solve with it.
That message won’t reach many voters, especially MAGA diehards, but I believe there are many winnable voters who are being allowed to accept as fact that the Biden admin underperformed on the economy, which isn’t at all reflected in the evidence. If people end up believing the erroneous narrative, that’s one thing, but for the campaign to not even push back against it is another.
MrChainsaw27 on
It’s incredibly frustrating that this election is seemingly so close.
Strade87 on
These polls are terrible. No way trump is doing this well. Harris wins in a landslide I’m calling it. (Already voted)
Grymninja on
Should be 200
ReadyTheCanonz on
So, Western PA guy here (on the border of Ohio, suburban/rural) and it’s very weird. Lots more Trump signs around, but way more Harris signs than Joe or Hillary ever got. Like, it’s not even close. Harris signs tend to be condensed in the wealthier areas, with Trump signs tending to be in the more dangerous neighborhoods/shacks on the side of the road.
That being said, the ads for Trump are just asinine in the state. Just blatant falsehoods that don’t make sense on the surface level even. It’s very strange.
CannonAFB_unofficial on
Who the fuck is voting for the Green Party in 2024?
Crafty_Failures on
The polls are all over the place. +2 Harris, +5 Trump….don’t believe them. Be active and get out to vote!
moreesq on
Help me understand one point: if Stein and Oliver are on the Pennsylvania ballot, why do pollsters bother to include a question about a head-to-head matchup? I just deposited my New Jersey ballot and it had seven other candidates for president besides Trump and Harris.
Prestigious-Log-7210 on
That’s all? My God!
commercialband6 on
The AtlasIntel poll has Trump up by 3 in PA. Bringing Harris’s lead down to 0.4%. Hopefully that’s an outlier
Fapple__Pie on
We should be ashamed, as a country, that this election is on a razors edge. Unreal.
ClassicallyBrained on
That basically means she’s down by 3.
pittpanthers95 on
Pennsylvanian here: my ballot showed up yesterday and I have already mailed it back with a vote for Harris (and the down-ballot Dems too)!
travisbickle777 on
It would be a dream if PA and NC gets called early into the night so I could sleep soundly…
3490goat on
2 points?? That’s it?!? RFK Jr.’s brain worms have strokes while listening to TFG speak. How in one of the wealthiest countries and in one of the most educated times in human civilization does that wet fart personified have even a single supporter that isn’t just trying to grift the grifter in chief???!? He is a disgusting person, a worse businessman, and has failed at everything in his life except being a terrible human. I hate a lot of things about America, but the stupidity of most people is the one thing that makes me feel that America is on the decline. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE
MattyIce1220 on
Important thing is not to get that caught up in polls. What matters is we all do our part to vote and spread the word.
Electronic-Doctor110 on
Two points is nothing. It’ll come down to the actual results
busdriverbuddha2 on
One👏poll👏is👏not👏news👏
MoneyTalks45 on
It shouldn’t be close.
nazbot on
Not enough.
Brains_Are_Weird on
If you look at the AARP writeup on the study, it says that 91% of voters over 50 are “extremely motivated” to vote. That’s worrisome to me. Trump might not *need* much of a ground game in PA.
Brains_Are_Weird on
If you look at the AARP writeup on the study, it says that 91% of voters over 50 are “extremely motivated” to vote. That’s worrisome to me. Trump might not *need* much of a ground game in PA.
46 Comments
> Vice President Harris holds a two-point advantage over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, a new poll from AARP shows.
>
> In the recent survey, Harris garners 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 1 percent support and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver receives statistically no support. Another 3 percent say they are undecided.
>
> In a head-to-head matchup, Harris’s lead over Trump ticks up by 1 point, 50 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided, the poll found.
>
> The latest survey marks a 7-point shift from a previous poll conducted in April, months before President Biden withdrew from the race, when Biden trailed the former president by 5 points.
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe; pick the best state to spend your dough…
https://i.imgur.com/0KkHIMP.jpeg
The Harris campaign is spending nearly 200 million on ads in Pennsylvania (through Election Day) and dramatically outspending Trump in all the swing states. Their ground game appears to be strong too. Now, it’s up to Kamala and Tim to close the deal.
The polls suck. Voting and volunteering is good
That it’s not 20 points is completely insane.
The AARP polls tend to trend right too, so this is great for Harris.
This lead is going to disappear. The Longshoremen strike is going to end the campaign. Get ready for Trump camps.
Just 2 points to choose between governance and bat shit chaos. WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON?? PEOPLE, WAKE UP!!
Biden was leading Trump by 6 points on Oct 1st, 2020.
Add it to the aggregate. Individual polls mean nothing.
If we criticize polls that are good for Trump then we need to apply that same criticism to polls that are good for Harris
Who takes polls? What’s the sample size? Did they weight the results? Etc.
It’s ridiculous that it’s still so close.
I’m betting on WI, MI, PA, and AZ for Harris. GA and NC will be very close calls, so it’s hard to say. I want the result to be a massive landslide in the end for Kamala and Tim!
Let’s go VOTE!!!
As a citizen of the commonwealth,!let me say that she needs a bigger lead.
Winning the blue wall states including PA + 1 single additional electoral vote from Nebraska will be 270, enough for Harris to become the first woman president
PA voters for Trump, what the hell ie wrong with you guys?
Seriously do you need help?
Whats going on?
Hardly a lead. Check your registration and plan on voting and vote early if you can.
Makes up for the Trump +2 poll in NC (fortunately it has Robinson down by 16 points)
We need to crush MAGA.
Vote (obviously), talk to your friends and family, volunteer, and donate to save our democracy.
If we can pull this off we can start moving past hearing Don’s voice every damn day.
There’s 2 paths 2 victory.
Pennsylvania, or Nevada + 1 of Georgia or North Carolina.
Also if Wisconsin falls, that also requires Georgia or North Carolina to flip.
However, if we’re being honest, NC and GA will almost certainly vote to the right of Pennsylvania, so it’s essentially Pennsylvania or bust, both for Kamala and for democracy as a whole.
Let me repeat that: **a couple thousand people in Pennsylvania will decide if democracy continues in the US or not, and they’re almost certainly not aware of this fact**
Yall, I’ve seen three separate pollsters listed on 538 over the last few days that have Harris losing Pennsylvania. Plenty are saying she’s ahead, but this will be a nail biter. It would be hard to win without PA
Two hours later – “Harris trailing in PA by a lot!!”
This is getting tiring. Gotta stay off this sub for a few weeks.
People who support Trump must think like him. And that is truly sad.
What was the margin of error of this poll? What is the house bias?
Why should I think it’s not about even plus some unidentified bias and a bit of random noise?
The Biden admin and the Harris campaign haven’t done a good enough job hitting back on the economy narratives and it’s hurting them. I genuinely think that without the cemented idea that the Biden admin hasn’t managed the economy well, Trump would be having a much harder time.
When you look at the economy pre-COVID to today, the US has performed better than any other G7 country. While the US had the second-highest cumulative inflation of G7 countries, it also had by far the most cumulative economic growth (almost twice the next highest country). The US unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in the last year of Trump’s Presidency and is now at 3.9%. When you consider that the G7 all typically aim for 2% inflation and 1-3% GDP growth, the US is the only country within typical ratios when comparing cumulative inflation to cumulative growth (with a 2:1 ratio). The UK, a country governed through the pandemic by Trump-allied Conservatives who have been campaigning with him on the trail, experienced higher inflation and stagnant growth, with a 10:1 inflation-growth ratio and rising unemployment.
The kicker? Real wages (inflation-adjusted) have risen since 2019. Consensus wisdom would dictate that people have less money relative to prices than they did in 2019, but real wages have grown for every income group. The lowest income earners (10th percentile) have experienced the biggest gains, some 12% real wage growth since 2019; middle income earners (40th-60th) have seen 3% real wage growth.
The Biden administration’s fatal flaw has always been communications and it stems from the top but the Harris campaign needed to come out and confront the inflation issue head-on and present the case that the US outperformed similarly-situated countries, including those run by Trumpian conservatives. She should acknowledge the pain and anxiety caused by high inflation, but should tout the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, and point out that Trump’s flagship economic policy, tariffs, doesn’t even make sense as a solution for inflation, never mind all of the other problems he wants to solve with it.
That message won’t reach many voters, especially MAGA diehards, but I believe there are many winnable voters who are being allowed to accept as fact that the Biden admin underperformed on the economy, which isn’t at all reflected in the evidence. If people end up believing the erroneous narrative, that’s one thing, but for the campaign to not even push back against it is another.
It’s incredibly frustrating that this election is seemingly so close.
These polls are terrible. No way trump is doing this well. Harris wins in a landslide I’m calling it. (Already voted)
Should be 200
So, Western PA guy here (on the border of Ohio, suburban/rural) and it’s very weird. Lots more Trump signs around, but way more Harris signs than Joe or Hillary ever got. Like, it’s not even close. Harris signs tend to be condensed in the wealthier areas, with Trump signs tending to be in the more dangerous neighborhoods/shacks on the side of the road.
That being said, the ads for Trump are just asinine in the state. Just blatant falsehoods that don’t make sense on the surface level even. It’s very strange.
Who the fuck is voting for the Green Party in 2024?
The polls are all over the place. +2 Harris, +5 Trump….don’t believe them. Be active and get out to vote!
Help me understand one point: if Stein and Oliver are on the Pennsylvania ballot, why do pollsters bother to include a question about a head-to-head matchup? I just deposited my New Jersey ballot and it had seven other candidates for president besides Trump and Harris.
That’s all? My God!
The AtlasIntel poll has Trump up by 3 in PA. Bringing Harris’s lead down to 0.4%. Hopefully that’s an outlier
We should be ashamed, as a country, that this election is on a razors edge. Unreal.
That basically means she’s down by 3.
Pennsylvanian here: my ballot showed up yesterday and I have already mailed it back with a vote for Harris (and the down-ballot Dems too)!
It would be a dream if PA and NC gets called early into the night so I could sleep soundly…
2 points?? That’s it?!? RFK Jr.’s brain worms have strokes while listening to TFG speak. How in one of the wealthiest countries and in one of the most educated times in human civilization does that wet fart personified have even a single supporter that isn’t just trying to grift the grifter in chief???!? He is a disgusting person, a worse businessman, and has failed at everything in his life except being a terrible human. I hate a lot of things about America, but the stupidity of most people is the one thing that makes me feel that America is on the decline. WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE
Important thing is not to get that caught up in polls. What matters is we all do our part to vote and spread the word.
Two points is nothing. It’ll come down to the actual results
One👏poll👏is👏not👏news👏
It shouldn’t be close.
Not enough.
If you look at the AARP writeup on the study, it says that 91% of voters over 50 are “extremely motivated” to vote. That’s worrisome to me. Trump might not *need* much of a ground game in PA.
If you look at the AARP writeup on the study, it says that 91% of voters over 50 are “extremely motivated” to vote. That’s worrisome to me. Trump might not *need* much of a ground game in PA.
Too close to comfort.
Vote vote vote.
How the fuck is it only 2