>So Smith and de Mesquita believe that the probability that our democracy will collapse during a possible Trump 2.0 presidency is virtually zero. Yes, Trump will almost certainly try to force the U.S. from the right of the graph to the left — and he may succeed to some unpleasant extent. But his policies will hurt so many people that even folks in the MAGA movement, they believe, will start to defect. His autocratic efforts will ultimately fail as tens of millions of people protest in the streets every month. And if you don’t believe that such protests can be effective, Smith would point out, once again, that the mass protests in 2011 in Egypt did take down the autocratic regime of longtime president Hosni Mubarak.
>Even if our democracy can survive another Trump electoral victory, there are plenty of other reasons one might worry about America’s future. The most obvious of those concerns climate change: If Trump returns to the White House, he will almost certainly dismantle most or all climate mitigation efforts, as expressly advocated by Project 2025. Perhaps, then, he could cause the collapse of democracy after all — not because the U.S. will slide into authoritarianism with Trump on a golden throne, but because modern civilization as a whole will crumble amid the climate catastrophe.
So, the gestalt here seems to be that, no, Trump and the GOP won’t be able to turn us into Gilead or North Korea 2.0 – but it’ll still be uniquely fucking awful in a way we haven’t seen in recent memory.
And even if our democratic institutions hang in there, we’ll still completely fuck human civilization in the long-term.
…
…You know, this was supposed to be a hopeful article for you all this fine morning, but I forget why.
Intelligent_Teach247 on
People said the same about Hitler before being sent to gas chambers.
No system is perfect and free from wannabe dictators. If they try hard enough, they will get it. The cult of MAGA is not any different from the cult of Nazi.
I_HateToSayAtodaso on
I don’t fucking care if he can’t fully do it. He’s going to try and he and his cronies in P25 are going to take as many rights away as possible in the process.
KnownAd523 on
That’s what the German intellectuals said about Hitler. How did that work out?
armchairmegalomaniac on
No because he’s about to get his ass spanked in the election. And after that he’ll be in prison.
forceblast on
Let’s not find out.
Harris/Walz 2024!
Stonecarver21 on
Yeah I believe Russia still calls its form of Government a Democracy too. Along with other countries that just happen to vote for the same person for decades.
Loyal-Opposition-USA on
How about we don’t put him in a position to try?
Libbrabrabry on
I don’t want to put him in a position to find out.
rickAUS on
Can do whatever you damn well please when the SC is on the take and elevated you above the rule of law. Plus, we already know how liberal his is with pardons, so now that he’s got immunity, he can do crimes, his cronies can do crimes and all of them can potentially walk away with zero worry about being prosecuted for any of it.
If he does get back in the probability that he does pull it off is potentially low, but it’s not zero.
The only way he can’t pull it off is if he never gets back in.
Monemvasia on
In our last mayoral election we had the choice between a MAGA that could pull off major (adverse) change and an inept schoolteacher that was racist and leaned too far left that couldn’t make change.
We chose the latter because our options were so bad.
PhotonArmy on
“He is a shitfuck who is planning the waste 4 years of your life and trillions of you dollars trying to turn you into his slave so he can escape prosecution for his crimes…. But he won’t entirely succeed”
… Is, I believe, the thesis here.
okayblueberries on
Can we stop underestimating him? This reeks of November 2016-January 2017 “maybe he won’t be that bad.” Even if he doesn’t 100% dismantle democracy, is 80% not a lot? 50%? 20%? Do losing Roe v. Wade and the hundreds of thousands of deaths from a mishandled pandemic feel better because at least he didn’t achieve migrant concentration camps and overthrowing an election?
peterst28 on
Yeah. Let’s not give him a chance to try. Make sure you’re registered to vote. A lot of states have an October 7 deadline to register! Register or check your registration at [vote.gov](https://vote.gov)
Vodeyodo on
Still, not a good idea to let him try.
eggs4breakfasy on
Given the precarious nature of democracy worldwide, whether Trump can fully extinguish democracy in the USA, ignores his potential to expand autocracy around the world (e.g. goodbye Ukraine).
cern1987 on
He has the Supreme Court and congress up his ass. Something tells me he’ll be just fine
Sea-Ad3206 on
He’s not the one doing it. His army of sycophants planning to disable the federal government with SCOTUS in their back pocket will do it
Any other analysis ignores what MAGA are already planning openly through Project 2025, the criminal fascist actions of their past & present, and precedent from other authoritarian regimes throughout history
DeuceGnarly on
You think republicans care what scholars say?
No.
The GOP is going to end democracy, period. That’s the end game. They want a russian styled oligarchy, and they won’t stop till they get it.
Very_Nice_Zombie on
It’s why I’m sick of the media treating him like he’s a normal candidate.
It’s absolutely ridiculous.
This guy is a threat to this country.
The fact 70 million idiots think he’s their savior is absolutely depressing.
TheCelestialDawn on
The US is already a highly deficient democracy by many international standards. Trump can certainly make it even worse.
lamsham69 on
Will Trump try? Or Is Trump trying?
seanosul on
Noone who wants to attempt to kill off democracy should be near an office where they could possibly achieve it.
Noone whose deportation policies would require the building of large numbers of concentration camps and the requisition of hundreds of commercial airlines should be anywhere near power.
Noone who would surrender sovereign parts of Europe to Russia should be anywhere near power.
The issue is not that he will likely fail if he attempts these, it is that he will attempt to do them.
Sioladoira on
Maybe not, but as a trans woman, I really don’t want to be in the crosshairs of a country that’s gonna try
econhistoryrules on
Why are we even fucking around with this??
daywall on
Ben Shapiro said the same.
And claimed because he can’t do it so he dosent care if he wins again.
nobodyisfreakinghome on
Fair. But why even give him a shot at it?
captsmokeywork on
That’s what they said about Hitler. Right before he banned every party but the National Socialist German Workers’ Party.
tmtg2022 on
He has the Supreme court
UncertainFate on
People throughout history are always surprised by what can be done when a radical leader is willing to use violence in a political system.
We can think of Hitler a night of the long knives,
the Gracchi Brothers in Rome and how the political system was changed to who controlled the most violent mob,
how Stalin would lock up military leaders, and anyone who might be a competitor to him eventually jailing 1 million of his own people.
Napoleon stating that you can’t beat him because he’s willing to spend 30,000 lives a month.
How Vladimir Putin has assassinated rich Russians around the wold who did not help with the war in the Ukraine or are in the way.
MSab1noE on
These Morons are sitting in their Ivory Tower and thinking that just because the US is “mature democracy” it can’t happen?
They’re living in an alternate reality.
There’s a completely compliant Judiciary, a completely compliant set of State Legislatures, and a completely compliant American Oligarchy funding it all.
Just because the US Senate MIGHT be Democrat means nothing.
Utter stupidity.
LurkerFailsLurking on
This is a dangerously idiotic thing to publish or share. Do not normalize or minimize the goal here. Even if Trump can’t immediately end democracy, he can do a hell of a lot of damage.
heelspider on
A president with a rubber stamp SCOTUS and a Congress that won’t convict on impeachment can do anything.
mspk7305 on
Blah blah blah. don’t fucking let him try.
Ritz527 on
Every attempt is practicing for success.
absentgl on
The argument they’re making isn’t so much that he won’t succeed, it’s that, if he does, even his own former supporters will help overthrow him.
That doesn’t instill a warm, fuzzy feeling.
gnocchicotti on
To anybody who says “yeah I know he wants to end democracy but I’m going to vote for him anyway because I doubt he can pull it off”… sincerely, fuck you.
Catspaw129 on
“mature democracies never become fascist”
About that:
— There’s always a first time for anything
— “never” is a long time
rantingathome on
To everyone that says to me…
***”The institutions have always held, and they will hold again.”***
39 Comments
>So Smith and de Mesquita believe that the probability that our democracy will collapse during a possible Trump 2.0 presidency is virtually zero. Yes, Trump will almost certainly try to force the U.S. from the right of the graph to the left — and he may succeed to some unpleasant extent. But his policies will hurt so many people that even folks in the MAGA movement, they believe, will start to defect. His autocratic efforts will ultimately fail as tens of millions of people protest in the streets every month. And if you don’t believe that such protests can be effective, Smith would point out, once again, that the mass protests in 2011 in Egypt did take down the autocratic regime of longtime president Hosni Mubarak.
>Even if our democracy can survive another Trump electoral victory, there are plenty of other reasons one might worry about America’s future. The most obvious of those concerns climate change: If Trump returns to the White House, he will almost certainly dismantle most or all climate mitigation efforts, as expressly advocated by Project 2025. Perhaps, then, he could cause the collapse of democracy after all — not because the U.S. will slide into authoritarianism with Trump on a golden throne, but because modern civilization as a whole will crumble amid the climate catastrophe.
So, the gestalt here seems to be that, no, Trump and the GOP won’t be able to turn us into Gilead or North Korea 2.0 – but it’ll still be uniquely fucking awful in a way we haven’t seen in recent memory.
And even if our democratic institutions hang in there, we’ll still completely fuck human civilization in the long-term.
…
…You know, this was supposed to be a hopeful article for you all this fine morning, but I forget why.
People said the same about Hitler before being sent to gas chambers.
No system is perfect and free from wannabe dictators. If they try hard enough, they will get it. The cult of MAGA is not any different from the cult of Nazi.
I don’t fucking care if he can’t fully do it. He’s going to try and he and his cronies in P25 are going to take as many rights away as possible in the process.
That’s what the German intellectuals said about Hitler. How did that work out?
No because he’s about to get his ass spanked in the election. And after that he’ll be in prison.
Let’s not find out.
Harris/Walz 2024!
Yeah I believe Russia still calls its form of Government a Democracy too. Along with other countries that just happen to vote for the same person for decades.
How about we don’t put him in a position to try?
I don’t want to put him in a position to find out.
Can do whatever you damn well please when the SC is on the take and elevated you above the rule of law. Plus, we already know how liberal his is with pardons, so now that he’s got immunity, he can do crimes, his cronies can do crimes and all of them can potentially walk away with zero worry about being prosecuted for any of it.
If he does get back in the probability that he does pull it off is potentially low, but it’s not zero.
The only way he can’t pull it off is if he never gets back in.
In our last mayoral election we had the choice between a MAGA that could pull off major (adverse) change and an inept schoolteacher that was racist and leaned too far left that couldn’t make change.
We chose the latter because our options were so bad.
“He is a shitfuck who is planning the waste 4 years of your life and trillions of you dollars trying to turn you into his slave so he can escape prosecution for his crimes…. But he won’t entirely succeed”
… Is, I believe, the thesis here.
Can we stop underestimating him? This reeks of November 2016-January 2017 “maybe he won’t be that bad.” Even if he doesn’t 100% dismantle democracy, is 80% not a lot? 50%? 20%? Do losing Roe v. Wade and the hundreds of thousands of deaths from a mishandled pandemic feel better because at least he didn’t achieve migrant concentration camps and overthrowing an election?
Yeah. Let’s not give him a chance to try. Make sure you’re registered to vote. A lot of states have an October 7 deadline to register! Register or check your registration at [vote.gov](https://vote.gov)
Still, not a good idea to let him try.
Given the precarious nature of democracy worldwide, whether Trump can fully extinguish democracy in the USA, ignores his potential to expand autocracy around the world (e.g. goodbye Ukraine).
He has the Supreme Court and congress up his ass. Something tells me he’ll be just fine
He’s not the one doing it. His army of sycophants planning to disable the federal government with SCOTUS in their back pocket will do it
Any other analysis ignores what MAGA are already planning openly through Project 2025, the criminal fascist actions of their past & present, and precedent from other authoritarian regimes throughout history
You think republicans care what scholars say?
No.
The GOP is going to end democracy, period. That’s the end game. They want a russian styled oligarchy, and they won’t stop till they get it.
It’s why I’m sick of the media treating him like he’s a normal candidate.
It’s absolutely ridiculous.
This guy is a threat to this country.
The fact 70 million idiots think he’s their savior is absolutely depressing.
The US is already a highly deficient democracy by many international standards. Trump can certainly make it even worse.
Will Trump try? Or Is Trump trying?
Noone who wants to attempt to kill off democracy should be near an office where they could possibly achieve it.
Noone whose deportation policies would require the building of large numbers of concentration camps and the requisition of hundreds of commercial airlines should be anywhere near power.
Noone who would surrender sovereign parts of Europe to Russia should be anywhere near power.
The issue is not that he will likely fail if he attempts these, it is that he will attempt to do them.
Maybe not, but as a trans woman, I really don’t want to be in the crosshairs of a country that’s gonna try
Why are we even fucking around with this??
Ben Shapiro said the same.
And claimed because he can’t do it so he dosent care if he wins again.
Fair. But why even give him a shot at it?
That’s what they said about Hitler. Right before he banned every party but the National Socialist German Workers’ Party.
He has the Supreme court
People throughout history are always surprised by what can be done when a radical leader is willing to use violence in a political system.
We can think of Hitler a night of the long knives,
the Gracchi Brothers in Rome and how the political system was changed to who controlled the most violent mob,
how Stalin would lock up military leaders, and anyone who might be a competitor to him eventually jailing 1 million of his own people.
Napoleon stating that you can’t beat him because he’s willing to spend 30,000 lives a month.
How Vladimir Putin has assassinated rich Russians around the wold who did not help with the war in the Ukraine or are in the way.
These Morons are sitting in their Ivory Tower and thinking that just because the US is “mature democracy” it can’t happen?
They’re living in an alternate reality.
There’s a completely compliant Judiciary, a completely compliant set of State Legislatures, and a completely compliant American Oligarchy funding it all.
Just because the US Senate MIGHT be Democrat means nothing.
Utter stupidity.
This is a dangerously idiotic thing to publish or share. Do not normalize or minimize the goal here. Even if Trump can’t immediately end democracy, he can do a hell of a lot of damage.
A president with a rubber stamp SCOTUS and a Congress that won’t convict on impeachment can do anything.
Blah blah blah. don’t fucking let him try.
Every attempt is practicing for success.
The argument they’re making isn’t so much that he won’t succeed, it’s that, if he does, even his own former supporters will help overthrow him.
That doesn’t instill a warm, fuzzy feeling.
To anybody who says “yeah I know he wants to end democracy but I’m going to vote for him anyway because I doubt he can pull it off”… sincerely, fuck you.
“mature democracies never become fascist”
About that:
— There’s always a first time for anything
— “never” is a long time
To everyone that says to me…
***”The institutions have always held, and they will hold again.”***
My reply is always…
***”They only have to fail once!”***