Please, god, let this be a blow out so we never have to hear from Trump again… 🙏
ComprehensiveHavoc on
Encouraging: this is a polling average, so it’s suggesting Harris ~+4 with no margin of error. Discouraging: 538 still has 42% chance of Dump win—way too many plausible scenarios.
Neat-Log-1165 on
Harris stretching her lead is good news, but honestly, it doesn’t mean much if she doesn’t lock down those key swing states. National polls don’t decide the election, the electoral college does, so she still has work to do.
Arkvoodle42 on
meaningless because a bunch of backwards states have more power over the presidency than the population.
He’s going to win.
Dont__Grumpy__Stop on
>the polling analysis website 538, also known as Five Thirty Eight
Oh, ok. Because I was confused by what 538 was. Thanks for clarifying.
haggi585 on
Polls like to rollercoaster in the final month to get you antsy. Don’t listen to them. Vote!
Phizza921 on
I’d ignore this article for the most part.
Let’s just start with one thing – any national poll or model average that has Trump getting less than 46-47 is wrong. Any rust belt poll or average that doesn’t have Trump at 47-48 is wrong.
Trumps numbers are easy to predict but hard to poll. They have been consistently solid in the 2016 and 2020 elections actual results and we can expect likely the same result in 2024.
Dem top line number polls accurately and has for the most part in 2016 and 2020.
If we see Harris top line number at 49-50 across the rust belt, 48-49 across the sunbelt and 49-50 national average then it’s highly likely she’s heading for a win. How big that win will be as it translates to an electoral college win is uncertain though there are indications that her win might be shallow and wide like 2012.
Castle-Fire on
If you want that landslide, then you should help us work for it. Write letters to encourage people to vote, do some phone banking or text banking, and remember to *check and re-check* your voter registration as often as you can, since people are being purged in many swing states!
Always good practice to have ELECTION PROTECTION and/or CIVIL RIGHTS DIVISION phone numbers in your contact list in case you encounter voting issues at any point.
Well sure, but if you look at it as a Vote per Tooth ratio-he’s crushing
Polarbearseven on
Maybe we could have a “Bedford Falls” instead of a “Pottersville” this Christmas.
ruinyourjokes on
People constantly talking about the polls are too tight and it’s going to be a toss up. I just can’t see it. I fully believed Biden would have won again, and I believe Harris will win in a landslide.
Covid kills hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately Republicans.
January 6th
4 indictments, 34 convictions, liable of sexual assault, guilty of business fraud.
ROE V WADE
Can’t pull a crowd anymore, and he’s not campaigning in places where it matters.
He picked jd Vance!
He’s become even more unhinged
He had a devastating defeat in the debate, raving about Haitians eating dogs and cats with 60+ million people watching live.
He heavily underperformed in the primaries, even after Haley dropped out.
He’s losing all ground on the economy, which he shouldn’t have had any claim to in the first place.
And his whole appeal was that he seems more strong and fit for office, when compared to Biden, but now he’s running against someone 20 years younger and WAY smarter and stronger than him, and she is showing it.
The polls and the media just want this to be a horse race for ratings. The media networks are towing the line and seem to want trump to win so they can get tax breaks. I truly believe it’s being artificially made close, and Harris is going to do a finishing move on trump, electorally, in November.
That being said, GO VOTE!!!
User4C4C4C on
If this trend continues, people are going to have to figure out where his old followers go and fit.
fr0z3nf1r3 on
Down ballot races matter WAY more than the president folks. Go vote. Even in a blowout.
QuickStyx on
My favorite part of all these articles popping up is the lack of information regarding the sample size.
Dimerien on
I keep reading these headlines, but 538 still only has Harris at +2.8. Can somebody explain?
ktka on
Remember, it ain’t over till the Fat Bastard sings.
GildedEther on
Ahhh. A normal legit candidate who isn’t a rapist treasonous dementia sufferer has a lead? Thank all that is holy that not every person in the USA is Fox News brain rotted
ferrari20094 on
I’m pretty confident that polling companies have adjusted their partisan lean from 2016 and 2020, I’m thinking the lead Harris holds is even higher than what the polls indicate. I’d put money on a blowout. That is if we have turnout similar or higher to the ’20 election. The only chance Trump has is if he can somehow convince Harris voters to stay home on election day.
progbuck on
Polls are one thing, but I think that the biggest indicator of where the election stands is how the two campaigns are behaving. Prior to Biden dropping, the Trump campaign was practically measuring drapes for the oval office. Now, they have been in low-grade, steadily escalating panic for weeks.
SoFlo1 on
I think what’s significant is she is now polling nationally as high as she ever did in the initial excitement wave. I take this to mean her execution is matching the excitement and there’s probably some room to grow now.
Vote. Talk to everyone you know. Make sure they have a plan to vote. Reach out to every college student you know and make sure they know how to request and return their absentee ballot!
20 Comments
Please, god, let this be a blow out so we never have to hear from Trump again… 🙏
Encouraging: this is a polling average, so it’s suggesting Harris ~+4 with no margin of error. Discouraging: 538 still has 42% chance of Dump win—way too many plausible scenarios.
Harris stretching her lead is good news, but honestly, it doesn’t mean much if she doesn’t lock down those key swing states. National polls don’t decide the election, the electoral college does, so she still has work to do.
meaningless because a bunch of backwards states have more power over the presidency than the population.
He’s going to win.
>the polling analysis website 538, also known as Five Thirty Eight
Oh, ok. Because I was confused by what 538 was. Thanks for clarifying.
Polls like to rollercoaster in the final month to get you antsy. Don’t listen to them. Vote!
I’d ignore this article for the most part.
Let’s just start with one thing – any national poll or model average that has Trump getting less than 46-47 is wrong. Any rust belt poll or average that doesn’t have Trump at 47-48 is wrong.
Trumps numbers are easy to predict but hard to poll. They have been consistently solid in the 2016 and 2020 elections actual results and we can expect likely the same result in 2024.
Dem top line number polls accurately and has for the most part in 2016 and 2020.
If we see Harris top line number at 49-50 across the rust belt, 48-49 across the sunbelt and 49-50 national average then it’s highly likely she’s heading for a win. How big that win will be as it translates to an electoral college win is uncertain though there are indications that her win might be shallow and wide like 2012.
If you want that landslide, then you should help us work for it. Write letters to encourage people to vote, do some phone banking or text banking, and remember to *check and re-check* your voter registration as often as you can, since people are being purged in many swing states!
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/
Canvassing opportunities: https://swingleft.org/take-action?utm_medium=paid-search&utm_source=google-search&utm_term=canvass&utm_campaign=volunteeracquisition24&keyword=political%20canvassing%20volunteer&gclid=Cj0KCQjwi5q3BhCiARIsAJCfuZnV4ejB2pqZPWJTVs469utGyTi8GoJbzuFHpB5W3qUGrYfHSnxsrecaApFfEALw_wcB&s=u
Letter writing campaigns:
https://votefwd.org/
Phone banking
https://democrats.org/phonebanking/
Writing Post Cards
https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/pages/write-postcards
https://www.fieldteam6.org/postcarding1
https://turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Always good practice to have ELECTION PROTECTION and/or CIVIL RIGHTS DIVISION phone numbers in your contact list in case you encounter voting issues at any point.
Election Protection is 866-687-8683 — https://866ourvote.org
Civil Rights Division is 800-253-3931 — https://civilrights.justice.gov/report
Well sure, but if you look at it as a Vote per Tooth ratio-he’s crushing
Maybe we could have a “Bedford Falls” instead of a “Pottersville” this Christmas.
People constantly talking about the polls are too tight and it’s going to be a toss up. I just can’t see it. I fully believed Biden would have won again, and I believe Harris will win in a landslide.
Covid kills hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately Republicans.
January 6th
4 indictments, 34 convictions, liable of sexual assault, guilty of business fraud.
ROE V WADE
Can’t pull a crowd anymore, and he’s not campaigning in places where it matters.
He picked jd Vance!
He’s become even more unhinged
He had a devastating defeat in the debate, raving about Haitians eating dogs and cats with 60+ million people watching live.
He heavily underperformed in the primaries, even after Haley dropped out.
He’s losing all ground on the economy, which he shouldn’t have had any claim to in the first place.
And his whole appeal was that he seems more strong and fit for office, when compared to Biden, but now he’s running against someone 20 years younger and WAY smarter and stronger than him, and she is showing it.
The polls and the media just want this to be a horse race for ratings. The media networks are towing the line and seem to want trump to win so they can get tax breaks. I truly believe it’s being artificially made close, and Harris is going to do a finishing move on trump, electorally, in November.
That being said, GO VOTE!!!
If this trend continues, people are going to have to figure out where his old followers go and fit.
Down ballot races matter WAY more than the president folks. Go vote. Even in a blowout.
My favorite part of all these articles popping up is the lack of information regarding the sample size.
I keep reading these headlines, but 538 still only has Harris at +2.8. Can somebody explain?
Remember, it ain’t over till the Fat Bastard sings.
Ahhh. A normal legit candidate who isn’t a rapist treasonous dementia sufferer has a lead? Thank all that is holy that not every person in the USA is Fox News brain rotted
I’m pretty confident that polling companies have adjusted their partisan lean from 2016 and 2020, I’m thinking the lead Harris holds is even higher than what the polls indicate. I’d put money on a blowout. That is if we have turnout similar or higher to the ’20 election. The only chance Trump has is if he can somehow convince Harris voters to stay home on election day.
Polls are one thing, but I think that the biggest indicator of where the election stands is how the two campaigns are behaving. Prior to Biden dropping, the Trump campaign was practically measuring drapes for the oval office. Now, they have been in low-grade, steadily escalating panic for weeks.
I think what’s significant is she is now polling nationally as high as she ever did in the initial excitement wave. I take this to mean her execution is matching the excitement and there’s probably some room to grow now.
Vote. Talk to everyone you know. Make sure they have a plan to vote. Reach out to every college student you know and make sure they know how to request and return their absentee ballot!