By the numbers: Here’s what it would take to bring down the Liberals in a confidence vote

Source: Knopwood

2 Comments

  1. The NDP probably isn’t going to stop supporting the Liberals until they have a good reason to. For now, I think they obviously see a Liberal minority where they have some influence (albeit only a little and less than they had before) over a weak minority rather than handing Poilievre a majority government on a silver platter etc. but I think that will change when the next budget is being voted on, which will mean bigger spats between them over policy direction, which might unamendable at this point.

    So currently this is just political theater by the CPC and NDP for separate reasons. The CPC wants and early election if possible, and if they don’t get that, they can at least paint the NDP as complicit in continuing to prop up the Liberals even as they try to distance themselves from Trudeau etc. For NDP, I suspect, Singh assumes/is hoping he can leverage a better deal out of Trudeau and get more NDP policies past while silencing the critiques of his leadership being toothless & subservient to Trudeau etc. However, this is more of a gamble for the NDP than it is the Conservatives.

    While Poilievre doesn’t stand to lose anything from these theatrical displays since it keeps the government and NDP on the defensive while he gets to set the discourse, Singh is making an all or nothing bet on his legacy where he either wins big or crashes and burns spectacularly.

  2. This is out there, but it seems like the best deal the NDP and the Bloc could make is negotiating a deal with the Conservatives where they give them no confidence, but the Conservatives have to promise to keep some policies, like pharmacare etc. That way they can secure those policies for 4 more years, rather than risking a Conservative government scrapping them by 2025. This hinges on the Conservatives keep their promise however.

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