Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win four critical swing states against former President Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver’s presidential model.
With the presidential election a month-and-a-half away, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has over a 50 percent chance of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, Silver currently predicts.
If she wins those 4, that’s it, she wins. A NC, GA, or AZ win would just cement it.
SubjectNo5281 on
I think what we’re seeing is a couple things coalescing into a blue tsunami.
>A. They just cheered on over a million Americans dying to Covid, the conservatives flouted the restrictions, so what politial affiliation do you think most of the dead had? Maybe enough to wipe out the carefully gerrymandered districts in many swing states.
>B. They just killed Roe V. Wade, pissing off their wives, daughters, mothers, and every woman with a conscience. It’s why they’re openly talk about taking away their right to vote, because they preferred it when the only vote in the house was theirs.
>C. Trump and Vance are inextricably tied to the insanely unpopular and evil Project 2025. They authored it, and plan to impmenent it, then they made the mistake of letting the base know about it and those guys can’t shut up, so now the world knows.
>D. Trump keeps screaming the quiet part out loud because he wants approval from the froth mouthed base, and all it does it turn every independent away from him and encourages any moderate conservatives left to flee.
>E. Trumps scandals are all anyone is talking about anymore. The failure at the debate, the “shootings” seem more comical than martyr making for him, the pet eating bullshit with Vance, they just can’t help themselves with this shit that is only impressing the base of the base.
All of this is great and I’m glad she’s looking up, but absolutely do not get complacent. Stay engaged, encourage others to get registered and vote, and let this be pleasant background noise, NOT a reason to stay home becasue you think she’s got this.
We need every vote, because they have already told you they don’t plan to win fairly. They’re already stealing electoral college seats in New Hampshire, and already talking about what the next Jan 6 is going to be, believe them.
MrFenric on
Based on the 2016 polls compared to the results, I am wary of predictions on swing states
Edit – spelling
Minute-Criticism1310 on
Go out and vote, vote like if we are behind. We need huge turn out
gentleman_bronco on
Greatly underestimating the GOP plans to subvert and throw out millions of votes nationwide.
asu_lee on
Check your voter registration and vote
keysboy123 on
The article states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada
Indaflow on
Don’t get comfortable.
Vote vote vote
Because they are going to cheat cheat cheat
It’s not close enough.
simanthropy on
Sorry, I must have misread the posts a few weeks back when he was predicting 70% in favour of Trump calling him a paid-for shill in the pockets of the gambling industry.
Now he’s favouring Harris again, is this sub going to accept that he really knows what he’s talking about? At least until it swings the other way?
Orion_2kTC on
I would love for her to win a surprise sleeper state, like Florida or Texas.
-HiiiPower- on
Pretty much every single post on this sub is talking about how Harris is winning a poll. Feels like 2016 all over again.
splycedaddy on
Just a reminder of Nate Silver swing state prediction. Spoiler, if Nate Silver says a dem will win…
I thought I just heard from the NYT that Trump was leading in these key swing states? So confusing, I guess it just means you gotta go and vote no matter what the polls say
eze6793 on
Vote
ifjake on
There’s enough fuckery with the voting process going on, the margin of “error” is so large now.
Re_LE_Vant_UN on
You can tell the energy in the Conservative sub is deflated like a balloon. Their lizard brains know what’s coming even if their frontal lobe hasn’t accepted it yet.
P.S. If someone follows this up with NOT IF YOU DONT GO VOTE i am going to simply lose my mind. We know.
Krakengreyjoy on
Unfortunately Nate Silver is not a reliable source
Wh0snwhatsit on
I’m holding out hope.
Xelbiuj on
Polls are the devil vote like your life depends on it. (It does.)
moxyte on
Nate Silver track record tho. “Fuck you Nate Silver!”
worlds_okayest_skier on
Yeah, well according to X, Trump is about to flip California and New York red on his way to a 49 state landslide. Source: a black woman with a maga shirt on a SoCal beach.
Molin_Cockery on
Doesn’t matter… VOTE
iamamuttonhead on
Accurate polling gets increasingly difficult every year. Are you a person who answers calls not from your contact list? I’m in my 60s and I don’t. Most people I know don’t. My kids certainly don’t. People like me almost certainly can’t be accounted for. How many people are like me in that they will never answer a call from a polling outfit? Are the people who DO answer polls representative of the larger population? I don’t know but my suspicion, based on the last few elections, is that they are not.
SarahMagical on
More. We need more. A lot more. We need to crush this.
Lucarioismadpt2 on
I. Don’t. Fucking. Care. Please for the love of God vote, make a plan to vote, get your friends and family to vote. She must win.
1917Thotsky on
Why do people listen to Nate Silver?
StChas77 on
Favored isn’t the same thing as ‘going to win.’
When the Eagles played the Patriots in Super Bowl 52, Nate Silver and his crew gave the Eagles a 43% chance to win the game, which was still higher than a lot of analysts. The Eagles won, but if you watched the game, you could see that if the teams played 100 times, then the Pats winning 57 of them seemed just about right.
chesh14 on
Please do not let these polls lure you into complacency. Vote. Get others to vote. We cannot have a repeat of 2016.
Infamous_Bend4521 on
No diddy
tattooed_debutante on
If only she was actually on the Montana ballot.
makeamericagrateful on
Please vote.
scavenger1012 on
It is going to be a shit show of epic proportions when these officials start refusing to certify based on vague stories of fraud.
thegooniegodard on
Don’t get complacent! Vote!
FunboyFrags on
It’s encouraging, but we still have to push harder than we ever have until election day. We are not safe.
u_bum666 on
It would be helpful if this article linked to the model in question.
kiwi_commander on
POLLS DONT MATTER, VOTING DOES! So, make sure you are registered and make a voting plan.
Their game plan is for corrupt state officials to steal the election. The only way to avoid it is to have a landslide that they can’t play games with.
slickfast on
What polls don’t capture is suppression. And they don’t capture the people who reject pollsters outright. Do NOT trust polls, we very much can win this thing but literally nothing changes with a poll. VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT
40 Comments
By Rachel Dobkin – Weekend Reporter:
Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win four critical swing states against former President Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver’s presidential model.
With the presidential election a month-and-a-half away, Harris, the Democratic nominee, has over a 50 percent chance of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, Silver currently predicts.
Read more: [https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-favored-win-swing-states-nate-silver-polls-1957461](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-favored-win-swing-states-nate-silver-polls-1957461)
If she wins those 4, that’s it, she wins. A NC, GA, or AZ win would just cement it.
I think what we’re seeing is a couple things coalescing into a blue tsunami.
>A. They just cheered on over a million Americans dying to Covid, the conservatives flouted the restrictions, so what politial affiliation do you think most of the dead had? Maybe enough to wipe out the carefully gerrymandered districts in many swing states.
>B. They just killed Roe V. Wade, pissing off their wives, daughters, mothers, and every woman with a conscience. It’s why they’re openly talk about taking away their right to vote, because they preferred it when the only vote in the house was theirs.
>C. Trump and Vance are inextricably tied to the insanely unpopular and evil Project 2025. They authored it, and plan to impmenent it, then they made the mistake of letting the base know about it and those guys can’t shut up, so now the world knows.
>D. Trump keeps screaming the quiet part out loud because he wants approval from the froth mouthed base, and all it does it turn every independent away from him and encourages any moderate conservatives left to flee.
>E. Trumps scandals are all anyone is talking about anymore. The failure at the debate, the “shootings” seem more comical than martyr making for him, the pet eating bullshit with Vance, they just can’t help themselves with this shit that is only impressing the base of the base.
All of this is great and I’m glad she’s looking up, but absolutely do not get complacent. Stay engaged, encourage others to get registered and vote, and let this be pleasant background noise, NOT a reason to stay home becasue you think she’s got this.
We need every vote, because they have already told you they don’t plan to win fairly. They’re already stealing electoral college seats in New Hampshire, and already talking about what the next Jan 6 is going to be, believe them.
Based on the 2016 polls compared to the results, I am wary of predictions on swing states
Edit – spelling
Go out and vote, vote like if we are behind. We need huge turn out
Greatly underestimating the GOP plans to subvert and throw out millions of votes nationwide.
Check your voter registration and vote
The article states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada
Don’t get comfortable.
Vote vote vote
Because they are going to cheat cheat cheat
It’s not close enough.
Sorry, I must have misread the posts a few weeks back when he was predicting 70% in favour of Trump calling him a paid-for shill in the pockets of the gambling industry.
Now he’s favouring Harris again, is this sub going to accept that he really knows what he’s talking about? At least until it swings the other way?
I would love for her to win a surprise sleeper state, like Florida or Texas.
Pretty much every single post on this sub is talking about how Harris is winning a poll. Feels like 2016 all over again.
Just a reminder of Nate Silver swing state prediction. Spoiler, if Nate Silver says a dem will win…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I thought I just heard from the NYT that Trump was leading in these key swing states? So confusing, I guess it just means you gotta go and vote no matter what the polls say
Vote
There’s enough fuckery with the voting process going on, the margin of “error” is so large now.
You can tell the energy in the Conservative sub is deflated like a balloon. Their lizard brains know what’s coming even if their frontal lobe hasn’t accepted it yet.
P.S. If someone follows this up with NOT IF YOU DONT GO VOTE i am going to simply lose my mind. We know.
Unfortunately Nate Silver is not a reliable source
I’m holding out hope.
Polls are the devil vote like your life depends on it. (It does.)
Nate Silver track record tho. “Fuck you Nate Silver!”
Yeah, well according to X, Trump is about to flip California and New York red on his way to a 49 state landslide. Source: a black woman with a maga shirt on a SoCal beach.
Doesn’t matter… VOTE
Accurate polling gets increasingly difficult every year. Are you a person who answers calls not from your contact list? I’m in my 60s and I don’t. Most people I know don’t. My kids certainly don’t. People like me almost certainly can’t be accounted for. How many people are like me in that they will never answer a call from a polling outfit? Are the people who DO answer polls representative of the larger population? I don’t know but my suspicion, based on the last few elections, is that they are not.
More. We need more. A lot more. We need to crush this.
I. Don’t. Fucking. Care. Please for the love of God vote, make a plan to vote, get your friends and family to vote. She must win.
Why do people listen to Nate Silver?
Favored isn’t the same thing as ‘going to win.’
When the Eagles played the Patriots in Super Bowl 52, Nate Silver and his crew gave the Eagles a 43% chance to win the game, which was still higher than a lot of analysts. The Eagles won, but if you watched the game, you could see that if the teams played 100 times, then the Pats winning 57 of them seemed just about right.
Please do not let these polls lure you into complacency. Vote. Get others to vote. We cannot have a repeat of 2016.
No diddy
If only she was actually on the Montana ballot.
Please vote.
It is going to be a shit show of epic proportions when these officials start refusing to certify based on vague stories of fraud.
Don’t get complacent! Vote!
It’s encouraging, but we still have to push harder than we ever have until election day. We are not safe.
It would be helpful if this article linked to the model in question.
POLLS DONT MATTER, VOTING DOES! So, make sure you are registered and make a voting plan.
[Ignore all polls](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F5hjt9b4njfqd1.png) and vote
The GOP doesn’t plan to “win”.
Their game plan is for corrupt state officials to steal the election. The only way to avoid it is to have a landslide that they can’t play games with.
What polls don’t capture is suppression. And they don’t capture the people who reject pollsters outright. Do NOT trust polls, we very much can win this thing but literally nothing changes with a poll. VOTE LIKE YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT