Trump definitely has some competition now! Let’s see how this plays out.
BiPAPselfie on
Why do pollsters and pundits more or less ignore the fact that Trump was actually President for a full (chaotic) term? How would he be a “change” candidate? It’a not like he is an unknown challenger. We experienced his style of leadership, and rejected it.
KingKoopa313 on
The idea that “we’ve seen this before” is presumptuous. Comparing this cycle to 2020 and 2016 ignores Dobbs (which has lead to Dems over performing polls for two years now) and J6. Losing 1-2% of his support due to the insurrection would be enough to sink him. Still, we’ll see how it plays out.
pmpork on
Challenging for the mantle of change??? When the hell was trump about change? It’s called grievance…the mantel of grievance.
Specific_Occasion_36 on
The dems picking a candidate that wasn’t actively dying helped them.
Who could have predicted such a thing.
EnderCN on
The bad news for Trump in this poll is the Having the necessary mental and physical health to be president question. He is behind on that one 54-34. Now that should be a lot worse to be honest but it shows that even his soft supporters don’t think he has it.
The most depressing thing of course is him leading on law and order.
efequalma on
Suggests the tides of public sentiment are shifting. Why has it taken this long?
moreesq on
Two points strike me: first, the five point lead is outside the margin of error! We haven’t seen that. Second, the undecided, middle shrank to 7%, which means the electorate is hardening into their positions, while Kamala has the lead.
AgentJackSmith on
The headline and article both state that the five point lead is within the margin of error but the actual poll data shows it as outside the margin of error. Am I missing something?
The embarrassingly cheap Trump family has managed to monetize the Office of the Presidency with worthless trinkets for 10 years.
Enough.
Make America Normal Again.
Vote Blue.
LivingThroughHistory on
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
LivingThroughHistory on
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
LivingThroughHistory on
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
AvengersXmenSpidey on
The national vote means little. It’s all about the handful of swing states, and it’s only a 0-2% difference in most of those.
Pennsylvania and North Carolina need to come through. They may decide everything, no thanks to the electoral college.
ModestProportion on
The few policy positions Trump leads Harris on are stuff he gets by default as a Republican.
You could nominate Noam fucking Chomsky as the GOP candidate and he’d *still* be strong in categories like the Economy or Law and Order because of decades of branding work.
IndependentMacaroon on
Some interesting numbers here:
* Border and immigration as the only one with a remaining massive lead for Trump (54% to 33% more trusted), but down to 14% from 22% as the top issue. Explains his campaign’s current manic immigration fearmongering.
* 4pp, 5pp, 9pp leads respectively for Harris on getting the country in the right direction, competence, and representing change (!), though 40% worry about more of the same for both candidates
* Leads the other way still on economy and inflation (9pp/8pp), and concern about both has only grown, but way down from April vs. Biden (22pp both), and other polls have even been showing a statistical tie going either way.
* Trump still ahead on crime as well but only a minuscule 2% consider it their top issue + threats to democracy 3pp up as top issue. However, climate change, health care, SS/Medicare, abortion also hover around 5%…
And of course the craziest being 21pp favorability increase for Harris to +3, a comparable jump to Bush Sr. after the Gulf War, with only Bush Jr. after 9/11 beating her by 9pp
PsychedelicConvict on
Fuck polls. Make sure to vote
viktor72 on
If you need some hopium today, I was canvassing yesterday in Michigan and the gender gap this poll shows is very real. I saw it in person. I talked to households where only the wife was listed as a potential Democratic voter on the app. I talked to a couple where the wife was full on Harris and the husband was 100% third party. I talked to a household where the husband straight up said, my wife is the one into politics. I talked to a wife who said she didn’t really talk politics because of her husband and her community and just kept it to herself but was happy to chat with us and take literature. It’s very real on the ground.
Leather-Map-8138 on
It’s hard for me to understand how anyone who is not a billionaire, a racist, or a bigot could even consider voting for Trump. I mean, who still falls for the “our way of life” bullshit?
Hyperion1144 on
Hillary was supposed to win, too.
Hillary was ahead at this point, too.
Election day is the only poll that matters.
Show up or else.
Ejziponken on
A new CBS poll showing Harris +4% today also.
And even better:
New poll from MassINC Polling Group/Spotlight PA conducted Sept. 11 to 17. They are ranked #18 on 538.
PA: Harris +5%
AlbinoAxie on
National polls are useless. Electoral college
reddittorbrigade on
National poll is not important.
Harris is the underdog. We must continue to encourage our family and friends to register and vote.
Sandra_fine on
Building momentum like this is crucial for her long-term political career.
SanDiegoDude on
>“We have seen this movie before,” said McInturff. “They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back and they vote the way they’re going to vote on a Republican-versus-Democrat preference for Congress.”
See, I don’t get this. Trump is a LOSER. He’s been consistently losing since 2018, and has been an albatross around the Republican Party neck the entire time. Remember that red wave that didn’t happen in 22? That was because of Trump. 40+ seats that should have been an easy moderate republican win wasn’t, and it was because of MAGA extremism turning away moderate Republican candidates for kiss the ring clowns with major character issues.
We need healthy political parties on both sides. that can’t happen until Trump has been excised and properly dealt with, first at the polls, then in the courts. The Republican Party is in for a rude awakening the day Trump is ‘gone’ (be it death or jail, whatever) and there is nobody who is his particular mix of crazy and charisma and stupidity to take up the mantle. The infighting will be glorious.
Cryonaut555 on
Trump is not the candidate of change, he’s just false grievance airing. The right has ZERO legitimate grievances.
crimeo on
Stop posting polls, they don’t matter and don’t help anything. They literally only make races closer for no reason other than media profits. (because whoever is “””winning””” gets complacent making it more even again)
starfixh on
How he had it in the first place is anybody’s fucking guess
Guccimayne on
I won’t rest until the 270th EC vote is given to Harris. And even then, 45 needs to be thrown under the prison
weaponjae on
How in the absolute fuck all hell could Trump be considered “change”? The dumb fucker was president four years ago and fucked us into the moment we are in right now.
It’s crazy to me that it took mainstream media’s coverage of this fucking King of the Racists to make me agree with them dumb rednecks that mainstream media is fucked (just for a wholly different reason than their “mainstream media made me see a black person” reason).
coastalwebdev on
The fact that so many Americans are dumb and or rotten enough to support Trump does not bode well for the US.
They’ve got way too many fascists and extremists rising up in America, and voting in Harris isn’t going to slow them down much at all.
The good hearted, free thinking people of America have a lot of hard work to do if they’re going to save their country from fascism in the coming years.
32 Comments
Trump definitely has some competition now! Let’s see how this plays out.
Why do pollsters and pundits more or less ignore the fact that Trump was actually President for a full (chaotic) term? How would he be a “change” candidate? It’a not like he is an unknown challenger. We experienced his style of leadership, and rejected it.
The idea that “we’ve seen this before” is presumptuous. Comparing this cycle to 2020 and 2016 ignores Dobbs (which has lead to Dems over performing polls for two years now) and J6. Losing 1-2% of his support due to the insurrection would be enough to sink him. Still, we’ll see how it plays out.
Challenging for the mantle of change??? When the hell was trump about change? It’s called grievance…the mantel of grievance.
The dems picking a candidate that wasn’t actively dying helped them.
Who could have predicted such a thing.
The bad news for Trump in this poll is the Having the necessary mental and physical health to be president question. He is behind on that one 54-34. Now that should be a lot worse to be honest but it shows that even his soft supporters don’t think he has it.
The most depressing thing of course is him leading on law and order.
Suggests the tides of public sentiment are shifting. Why has it taken this long?
Two points strike me: first, the five point lead is outside the margin of error! We haven’t seen that. Second, the undecided, middle shrank to 7%, which means the electorate is hardening into their positions, while Kamala has the lead.
The headline and article both state that the five point lead is within the margin of error but the actual poll data shows it as outside the margin of error. Am I missing something?
No victory laps until 11/6, get out and [VOTE!](https://www.vote.org)
The embarrassingly cheap Trump family has managed to monetize the Office of the Presidency with worthless trinkets for 10 years.
Enough.
Make America Normal Again.
Vote Blue.
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
It blows my mind that Trump maintains an advantage on anything policy related. He is completely incapable of articulating a policy position and many of his positions are extremely unpopular. He can tell you there’s a problem but can’t tell you the solution and somehow that’s enough for a large portion of Americans.
The national vote means little. It’s all about the handful of swing states, and it’s only a 0-2% difference in most of those.
Pennsylvania and North Carolina need to come through. They may decide everything, no thanks to the electoral college.
The few policy positions Trump leads Harris on are stuff he gets by default as a Republican.
You could nominate Noam fucking Chomsky as the GOP candidate and he’d *still* be strong in categories like the Economy or Law and Order because of decades of branding work.
Some interesting numbers here:
* Border and immigration as the only one with a remaining massive lead for Trump (54% to 33% more trusted), but down to 14% from 22% as the top issue. Explains his campaign’s current manic immigration fearmongering.
* 4pp, 5pp, 9pp leads respectively for Harris on getting the country in the right direction, competence, and representing change (!), though 40% worry about more of the same for both candidates
* Leads the other way still on economy and inflation (9pp/8pp), and concern about both has only grown, but way down from April vs. Biden (22pp both), and other polls have even been showing a statistical tie going either way.
* Trump still ahead on crime as well but only a minuscule 2% consider it their top issue + threats to democracy 3pp up as top issue. However, climate change, health care, SS/Medicare, abortion also hover around 5%…
And of course the craziest being 21pp favorability increase for Harris to +3, a comparable jump to Bush Sr. after the Gulf War, with only Bush Jr. after 9/11 beating her by 9pp
Fuck polls. Make sure to vote
If you need some hopium today, I was canvassing yesterday in Michigan and the gender gap this poll shows is very real. I saw it in person. I talked to households where only the wife was listed as a potential Democratic voter on the app. I talked to a couple where the wife was full on Harris and the husband was 100% third party. I talked to a household where the husband straight up said, my wife is the one into politics. I talked to a wife who said she didn’t really talk politics because of her husband and her community and just kept it to herself but was happy to chat with us and take literature. It’s very real on the ground.
It’s hard for me to understand how anyone who is not a billionaire, a racist, or a bigot could even consider voting for Trump. I mean, who still falls for the “our way of life” bullshit?
Hillary was supposed to win, too.
Hillary was ahead at this point, too.
Election day is the only poll that matters.
Show up or else.
A new CBS poll showing Harris +4% today also.
And even better:
New poll from MassINC Polling Group/Spotlight PA conducted Sept. 11 to 17. They are ranked #18 on 538.
PA: Harris +5%
National polls are useless. Electoral college
National poll is not important.
Harris is the underdog. We must continue to encourage our family and friends to register and vote.
Building momentum like this is crucial for her long-term political career.
>“We have seen this movie before,” said McInturff. “They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back and they vote the way they’re going to vote on a Republican-versus-Democrat preference for Congress.”
See, I don’t get this. Trump is a LOSER. He’s been consistently losing since 2018, and has been an albatross around the Republican Party neck the entire time. Remember that red wave that didn’t happen in 22? That was because of Trump. 40+ seats that should have been an easy moderate republican win wasn’t, and it was because of MAGA extremism turning away moderate Republican candidates for kiss the ring clowns with major character issues.
We need healthy political parties on both sides. that can’t happen until Trump has been excised and properly dealt with, first at the polls, then in the courts. The Republican Party is in for a rude awakening the day Trump is ‘gone’ (be it death or jail, whatever) and there is nobody who is his particular mix of crazy and charisma and stupidity to take up the mantle. The infighting will be glorious.
Trump is not the candidate of change, he’s just false grievance airing. The right has ZERO legitimate grievances.
Stop posting polls, they don’t matter and don’t help anything. They literally only make races closer for no reason other than media profits. (because whoever is “””winning””” gets complacent making it more even again)
How he had it in the first place is anybody’s fucking guess
I won’t rest until the 270th EC vote is given to Harris. And even then, 45 needs to be thrown under the prison
How in the absolute fuck all hell could Trump be considered “change”? The dumb fucker was president four years ago and fucked us into the moment we are in right now.
It’s crazy to me that it took mainstream media’s coverage of this fucking King of the Racists to make me agree with them dumb rednecks that mainstream media is fucked (just for a wholly different reason than their “mainstream media made me see a black person” reason).
The fact that so many Americans are dumb and or rotten enough to support Trump does not bode well for the US.
They’ve got way too many fascists and extremists rising up in America, and voting in Harris isn’t going to slow them down much at all.
The good hearted, free thinking people of America have a lot of hard work to do if they’re going to save their country from fascism in the coming years.