The articles essentially say that people are currently seeing 2 possible outcomes for 2025: either a Labor majority by the slimmest margins or a Labor minority with a possible Dutton victory in 2028 Ã la Abbott in 2010-2013.
There is a 3rd option that people have not considered: a minority Dutton Coalition government.
This is guaranteed to spook Albo and eliminates the possibility of an election at the end of this year or even early 2025.
He will probably do what Morrison did in 2022 and hold an election at the latest possible date for both houses in the hopes that things turn around in the last few months leading up to it.
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There are 2 AFR articles from Phil Coorey that go into more detail, but they are paywalled.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Dutton%20minority%20government
The articles essentially say that people are currently seeing 2 possible outcomes for 2025: either a Labor majority by the slimmest margins or a Labor minority with a possible Dutton victory in 2028 Ã la Abbott in 2010-2013.
There is a 3rd option that people have not considered: a minority Dutton Coalition government.
This is guaranteed to spook Albo and eliminates the possibility of an election at the end of this year or even early 2025.
He will probably do what Morrison did in 2022 and hold an election at the latest possible date for both houses in the hopes that things turn around in the last few months leading up to it.
That would be late May, according to this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election#Election_date